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forecasting

This topic has 1 reply, 2 voices, and was last updated 10 years ago by John Moffat.

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November 23, 2014 at 5:41 pm #212473
saifudeen
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unemployement numbers actually recorded in a town for the 2nd quarter of the year 2000 were 4700 . the underlying trend at this point was 4300 people and the seasonal factor is 0.92. using the multiplicative model for seasonal adjustment what is the seasonnally adjusted figure in whole number for the quarter ?
sir as this is multiplicative we should do lyk 4700*.92 correct ? but in the asnwer its given like 4700/.92 ? sir what is the correct answer and the reason please .
Thank You !!!
November 23, 2014 at 8:37 pm #212498
John Moffat
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The answer is correct.
The reason is that we would expect the unemployment to be 0.92 x the figure without seasonality.
So if the actual figure is 4700 then if there was not seasonality we would expect it to be 4700 / 0,92
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