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Decision Tree Example2 from Lecture Note

Forums › Ask ACCA Tutor Forums › Ask the Tutor ACCA PM Exams › Decision Tree Example2 from Lecture Note

  • This topic has 3 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 4 years ago by John Moffat.
Viewing 4 posts - 1 through 4 (of 4 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • July 29, 2020 at 6:31 pm #578714
    lchen
    Member
    • Topics: 17
    • Replies: 15
    • ☆

    Hello John, I just finished the lecture of decision tree and have a small question with example 2. The example says that if we are told from market research that the result is good, then we would either decide to do expensive refurnished or cheap one.

    My question is that since we are told there is 91% chance the result is gonna be good if we are
    told by the market research and the previous note said that if we did expensive one there is 2/3 chance that the result is good. Should the probability of getting a good result from expensive refurnished by informed the result is good is (2/3)*0.91?

    Sorry for the long question and thank you so much if you could explain that a bit!

    July 30, 2020 at 8:10 am #578738
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54671
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    No. If the market research had been perfect then is it said the result would be good then wewould be certain that the result would be good i.e. 100% probability.

    However the research is not perfect and so if it says that the result is good then there is a 91% probability that it will be good.

    July 30, 2020 at 9:09 am #578744
    lchen
    Member
    • Topics: 17
    • Replies: 15
    • ☆

    Thanks a lot for your explanation sir, I think I misunderstood the meaning of the question previously.

    July 30, 2020 at 3:35 pm #578781
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54671
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    You are welcome 🙂

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    Posts
Viewing 4 posts - 1 through 4 (of 4 total)
  • The topic ‘Decision Tree Example2 from Lecture Note’ is closed to new replies.

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