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Enterprise risk management

CIMA Free Mock Exam
CIMA-P3 · Chapter 3
  1. Enterprise risk management

1 Introduction

Enterprise risk management (ERM) is the application of one risk-management process to the whole of an organisation, rather than the application of many separate processes to its parts. It is a development and a formalisation of everything in Chapters 1 and 2: the same identification, the same assessment, the same four responses — but run once, to one set of definitions, with the results brought together in one place so that the board can see the organisation’s whole risk position rather than a stack of unrelated departmental views.

About the lecture for this chapter.

This short recording predates the 2027 syllabus. Its opening and closing match this chapter: the four families of risk (Chapter 1, section 4), the entity, division, business unit and subsidiary levels (section 2) and the risk report (section 4).

COSO: the diagram it is built on is COSO’s 2004 enterprise risk management cube, though the lecture does not name it. Its eight headings down the front, from internal environment to monitoring, were replaced in 2017. What it says under each heading about culture, appetite, identifying, assessing and responding to risk, controls, reporting and monitoring still holds, but where it tells you to learn the diagram’s sections, learn the 2017 components instead (Chapter 6, §3.2).

The 2027 syllabus names COSO’s 2017 five components; they are taught in Chapter 6, Internal control and auditing, and section 3 below cross-references them rather than repeating them.

YouTube video

Enterprise risk management

A process, applied across the whole enterprise and used in setting strategy as well as in carrying it out, that identifies the events which could affect the organisation, keeps the risk they carry within the organisation’s risk appetite, and so gives reasonable assurance that the organisation’s objectives will be met.

CIMA’s Official Terminology takes its definition of enterprise risk management from COSO — the Committee of Sponsoring Organizations of the Treadway Commission — whose framework is the one most often examined. COSO’s framework is set out in full in Chapter 6, Internal control and auditing, and it is not repeated here. What this chapter deals with is ERM as a process: what it adds to the risk management of Chapter 2, how risk is aggregated across a group, how risk is reported to shareholders, and the ethical dimension of managing it.

2 Risk at group level

A large organisation is not one thing. It is a listed entity that owns divisions, which contain business units, which own subsidiaries — and a risk can arise, and has to be managed, at any of those levels. A group in the motor industry might have a commercial vehicles division and a consumer vehicles division; each might have manufacturing, sales and consumer-finance business units; and each of those might operate through subsidiaries in different countries or for different marques.

Entity or group, divisions, business units and subsidiaries. Risk is identified at every level and consolidated upwards; appetite and policy are set at the top and applied downwards.Where risk is managed, and where it is added upEntity — the listed groupDivision: carsDivision: commercial vehiclesBusiness unit:Business unit:Business unit:manufacturingsalesconsumer financeSubsidiaries — one per country, or one per marquerisks areconsolidatedupwardsAppetite, definitions and policy are set at the top and applied downwards;the risks themselves are found at every level.

Some risks will be felt at entity level – for example, the Volkswagen exhaust emission scandal. Other risks will be more limited - for example, one make and model of vehicle that has to be recalled for repair, or a subsidiary dealing with consumer finance for new vehicles not complying with lending regulations.

Two things follow, and they run in opposite directions. Risk appetite, the definitions used to score risks, and the policy about who may accept what are set at the top and applied downwards, or the group’s risk numbers are not comparable with each other. The risks themselves are found at the bottom and reported upwards — which is the harder half, because the people who see a risk first are usually the furthest from the board.

2.1 Risk consolidation

Risk consolidation is the process of aggregating divisional/subsidiary risks at the corporate level. Some risks can be handled together and be subject to a common approach, or they might even substantially cancel.

For example, many organisations will organise insurance at the group level to cover injury to employees anywhere in the group. This approach will usually be cheaper than insuring small groups of employees separately.

Similarly, if one subsidiary is exporting and receiving US$, whilst another is importing and spends US$, the net exposure to US$ currency movement might be very low and can be ignored at the group level.

The saving is real and it can be large, but consolidation is not free. It needs a single definition of each risk so that two subsidiaries’ numbers can be added together; it needs the information to arrive centrally in time to be acted on; and it takes a decision away from a local manager who may still be measured on the result of it. Where two exposures are netted, they must also be netted in the same period — an $18 million receipt in March does not offset an $18 million payment in November.

Netting a group exposure

Meridian is a group with three subsidiaries. Over the next twelve months their US dollar cash flows are expected to be:

Subsidiary

Position

US$m

A

Exporter — will receive

18

B

Importer — will pay

(11)

C

Importer — will pay

(4)

All three amounts fall due in the same quarter. Forward cover costs 0.4% of the amount hedged. Each subsidiary’s finance manager, left alone, would cover the subsidiary’s own exposure in full.

Required

  • (a) How much would be hedged, and at what cost, if each subsidiary acts alone?

  • (b) What is the group’s net exposure, and what would it cost to cover centrally?

  • (c) State the saving, and give two reasons why the central approach is not free.

Show answerHide answer

Netting a group exposure

(a) Three subsidiaries acting alone

Working

$

Total hedged

18 + 11 + 4

33.0m

Cost of cover

33.0m × 0.4%

132,000

Note that the direction of each exposure is irrelevant to a subsidiary acting alone: A sells its dollars forward and B and C buy theirs, and all three pay for the cover.

(b) The group acting as one

Working

$

Net exposure

18 − 11 − 4

3.0m receipt

Cost of cover

3.0m × 0.4%

12,000

(c) The saving, and what it costs to get it

The saving is 132,000 − 12,000 = $120,000 a year, and $30 million of the $33 million was cover the group never needed: B’s and C’s payments are made with A’s receipts.

Two reasons it is not free — any two of:

  • the netting only works if the flows fall in the same period. Eighteen million dollars received in March does not offset eighteen million paid in November, so the group needs a forecast it can trust from every subsidiary, on time;

  • somebody has to run it. A central treasury has to be staffed, and it needs one set of definitions and one reporting timetable across the group;

  • the local manager loses the decision. If A’s manager is measured on A’s result, and the group leaves A’s receipt uncovered because B and C are paying, A’s reported result now moves with the exchange rate for a reason that manager did not choose. Internal forward rates between the treasury and the subsidiaries are the usual answer, and they have to be agreed before, not after;

  • the forecast is an estimate, and an error large enough can reverse the sign of the net position. If A’s receipt turns out to be $12m rather than $18m, the group’s net position is 12 − 11 − 4 = a net PAYMENT of $3m, where the treasury had forecast a net RECEIPT of $3m and sold $3m forward. That forward sale is now exposure pointing the wrong way: the group has to buy $3m of dollars to deliver under it and another $3m to meet the shortfall — $6m to buy where it planned to sell 3. Netting concentrates forecasting risk as well as currency risk, which is precisely why the forecasts have to be trusted before the position is netted.

This is what risk consolidation means in practice, and it is also a worked instance of Chapter 2 section 7.2: two exposures that offset are, taken together, smaller than either of them is alone.

3 What enterprise risk management adds

Every organisation manages risk somehow. What distinguishes enterprise risk management is that it is done once, for the whole organisation, and that it is used when the strategy is being set rather than only when it is being carried out. The contrast is with what is sometimes called silo risk management, where each function looks after its own risks in its own way:

Managing risk in silos

Enterprise risk management

Scope

Each function decides which of its risks matter.

One process covering every risk in the organisation, financial and non-financial.

Definitions

Each function scores likelihood and impact its own way, so the numbers cannot be added.

One set of definitions and one scale, so that a risk in one division can be compared with a risk in another.

Interaction

Invisible. Two risks that always crystallise together look like two moderate problems.

Explicit. Risks are aggregated, offsets are taken, and common drivers are identified.

When it is used

After the strategy is set — as a check on delivery.

While the strategy is being set, as one of the inputs to choosing it.

Who owns it

Whoever happens to care: often internal audit, or nobody.

The board, which sets the appetite; management, which runs the process; a named owner for each risk.

Reporting

Upwards only when something has gone wrong.

Routine, to a timetable, and outwards to shareholders as a principal-risk report.

3.1 What it is for

The point of doing it enterprise-wide is not tidiness. Four things become possible that are not possible otherwise:

  1. The board can see the whole position. Only an aggregated view can be compared with the organisation’s risk appetite and its risk capacity, and that comparison is the board’s job (Chapter 1, section 7.1).

  2. Risks can be netted and pooled. Insurance bought once for the group is cheaper than insurance bought five times; offsetting exposures cancel. Section 2 above is the whole of this point.

  3. Capital and attention can be allocated. If every risk is scored on one scale, the organisation can spend on the largest ones rather than on the ones with the loudest advocate.

  4. Risk can inform the strategy. A strategy chosen without knowing what risk it carries has been chosen on half the information. This is what distinguishes the current generation of risk-management frameworks from the previous one, and it is why the framework in Chapter 6 puts strategy and objective-setting at the front of the process.

3.2 What it does not do

  • It does not remove risk, and an organisation that removed all its risk would remove its return with it.

  • It gives reasonable assurance, not certainty: the estimates are estimates, and a risk nobody has thought of is not in the register.

  • It can become an exercise in filling in the register. A process that produces a document and changes no decision has cost money and bought nothing, and the test of whether it is working is whether the board has ever declined something because of it.

  • It depends on the honesty of the reporting. If a manager is punished for reporting an incident, incidents stop being reported and the register becomes a work of fiction — which is a matter of culture rather than of process, and is why the current frameworks put culture first.

4 Risk reports

Listed companies in most major markets are now required to include a risk report in their annual report. It tells shareholders and others what the organisation regards as its principal risks and what it is doing about them. In the UK, for example, quoted companies must describe their principal risks and uncertainties and explain how they are being managed.

Here is an extract from Unilever’s 2015 report and financial statements. It is a decade old and the individual risks will have moved on, but the FORM of the disclosure — each risk described in one column and the response to it in the other — is exactly what a principal risk report still looks like, and it is the form to copy:

Unilever annual report and accounts 2015 (PDF)

4.1 Unilever’s principal risk factors (2015)

Our business is subject to risks and uncertainties. On the following pages we have identified the risks that we regard as the most relevant to our business. These are the risks that we see as most material to Unilever’s business and performance at this time.

There may be other risks that could emerge in the future. We have also commented below on certain mitigating actions that we believe help us to manage these risks. However, we may not be successful in deploying some or all of these mitigating actions.

If the circumstances in these risks occur or are not successfully mitigated, our cash flow, operating results, financial position, business and reputation could be materially adversely affected. In addition, risks and uncertainties could cause actual results to vary from those described, which may include forward-looking statements, or could affect our ability to meet our targets or be detrimental to our profitability or reputation.

DESCRIPTION OF THE RISK

WHAT WE ARE DOING TO MANAGE THE RISK

BRAND PREFERENCE


As a branded goods business, Unilever’s success depends on the value and relevance of our brands and products to consumers around the world and on our ability to innovate and remain competitive.


Consumer tastes, preferences and behaviours are constantly changing and Unilever’s ability to anticipate and respond to these changes and to continue to differentiate our brands and products is vital to our business.



We are dependent on creating innovative products that continue to meet the needs of our consumers. If we are unable to innovate effectively, Unilever’s sales or margins could be materially adversely affected.

We continuously monitor external market trends and collate consumer, customer and shopper insight in order to develop category and brand strategies.


Our strategy focuses on investing in markets and segments which we identify as attractive because we have already built, or are confident that we can build, competitive advantage.


Our Research and Development function actively searches for ways in which to translate the trends in consumer preference and taste into new technologies for incorporation into future products.


Our innovation management process deploys tools, technologies and resources to convert category strategies into projects and category plans, develop products and relevant brand communication and successfully roll out new products to our consumers.

SUPPLY CHAIN



Our business depends on purchasing materials, efficient manufacturing and the timely distribution of products to our customers.



Our supply chain network is exposed to potentially adverse events such as physical disruptions, environmental and industrial accidents or bankruptcy of a key supplier which could impact our ability to deliver orders to our customers.


The cost of our products can be significantly affected by the cost of the underlying commodities and materials from which they are made. Fluctuations in these costs cannot always be passed on to the consumer through pricing.

We have contingency plans designed to enable us to secure alternative key material supplies at short notice, to transfer or share production between manufacturing sites and to use substitute materials in our product formulations and recipes.


These contingency plans also extend to an ability to intervene directly to support a key supplier should it for any reason find itself in difficulty or be at risk of negatively affecting a Unilever product.


We have policies and procedures designed to ensure the health and safety of our employees and the products in our facilities, and to deal with major incidents including business continuity and disaster recovery.


Commodity price risk is actively managed through forward buying of traded commodities and other hedging mechanisms. Trends are monitored and modelled regularly and integrated into our forecasting process.

SAFE AND HIGH QUALITY PRODUCTS



The quality and safety of our products are of paramount importance for our brands and our reputation.


The risk that raw materials are accidentally or maliciously contaminated throughout the supply chain or that other product defects occur due to human error, equipment failure or other factors cannot be excluded.

Our product quality processes and controls are comprehensive, from product design to customer shelf. They are verified annually, and regularly monitored through performance indicators that drive continuous improvement activities. Our key suppliers are externally certified and the quality of material received is regularly monitored to ensure that it meets the rigorous quality standards that our products require.


In the event of an incident relating to the safety of our consumers or the quality of our products, incident management teams are activated in the affected markets under the direction of our product quality, science, and communication experts, to ensure timely and effective market place action.

Drafting a principal-risk disclosure

Kelso plc is drafting the principal-risks section of its annual report. One of the risks it has identified is that a single supplier, in one country and on one site, makes a component that goes into 70% of Kelso’s products; there is no qualified alternative, and Kelso holds three weeks of buffer stock.

The draft disclosure reads, in full:

“We are exposed to supply chain risk. We manage this risk carefully and have appropriate procedures in place.”

Required

  • (a) Explain why that disclosure is of no use to a shareholder.

  • (b) Redraft it in the two-column form the Unilever extract uses.

Show answerHide answer

Drafting a principal-risk disclosure

(a) Why it is useless

  • it could be pasted into the annual report of any company, in any industry, in any year. Nothing in it is specific to Kelso, so it carries no information;

  • it names no source: which supplier, which component, how much of the business;

  • it quantifies no impact: a shareholder cannot tell whether a disruption would cost a week’s profit or the year’s;

  • “appropriate procedures” cannot be tested. A statement that cannot be falsified cannot give assurance, and the reader is being asked to take the board’s word for it;

  • it says nothing about the residual position — how much of the risk is left after the procedures, which is the only number that matters to the reader.

(b) A redraft

Description of the risk

What we are doing to manage it

SINGLE-SOURCE SUPPLY

One supplier, operating from a single site, makes a component used in products representing about 70% of group revenue. There is no qualified alternative source today, and we hold approximately three weeks of buffer stock.

An interruption lasting longer than that buffer would stop production of the affected lines. A prolonged interruption would have a material effect on revenue and on our ability to meet customer commitments, and could damage relationships that took years to build.

We have begun a dual-sourcing programme and expect a second supplier to be qualified for the highest-volume variants during the coming year.

We have increased buffer stock of the affected component from three to six weeks while that programme runs.

We review the supplier’s financial position quarterly and hold contractual commitments on capacity and notice periods.

Our business continuity plan for this component was tested during the year and the actions arising from that test are complete.

Until a second source is qualified, the board regards the residual risk as above its appetite and receives a monthly report on the programme.

The redraft is longer, and that is the point: it names the source, gives the reader enough to judge the impact, sets out specific and datable actions, and — unusually, and creditably — states plainly that the residual risk is still outside appetite. A disclosure that admits that is far more useful than one that implies everything is under control.

5 Environmental, social, and ethical issues of risk management

Organisations affect their environment and the human stakeholders with whom they interact. These effects can often produce ethical dilemmas that organisations have to deal with.

Almost every item in this section works through REPUTATION: the damage is done by what customers, regulators, employees and investors do after they find out. Chapter 1 section 6 sets out the sources and impact of reputational risk, and Chapter 7 deals with the ethics that sit behind most of them; this section is about the risks themselves.

5.1 Environmental issues

  • BP and the Deepwater Horizon oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico

  • VW and car emission misreporting

  • Release of dangerous chemicals into water supplies

Everyone is wise with hindsight, and no-one in the organisations concerned would have wanted these events to happen — although in Volkswagen’s case somebody was responsible for the incorrect reporting.

However, as always, there is a balance to be struck between risk and performance. Quite obviously there would be no oil spills if no company drilled for oil. BP had safety procedures in place but either they were inadequate or BP suffered exceptional bad luck. Not only did the company have to pay huge fines and compensation (about $60Bn) but it suffered severe reputational damage.

Unilever’s risk report also contains a section on sustainability:

SUSTAINABILITY


The success of our business depends on finding sustainable solutions to support long-term growth.


Unilever’s vision to accelerate growth in the business while reducing our environmental footprint and increasing our positive social impact will require more sustainable ways of doing business. This means reducing our environmental footprint while increasing the positive social benefits of Unilever’s activities. We are dependent on the efforts of partners and various certification bodies to achieve our sustainability goals. There can be no assurance that sustainable business solutions will be developed and failure to do so could limit Unilever’s growth and profit potential and damage our corporate reputation

The Unilever Sustainable Living Plan sets clear long-term commitments to improve health and well-being, reduce environmental impact and enhance livelihoods. Underpinning these are targets in areas such as hygiene, nutrition, sustainable sourcing, fairness in the workplace, opportunities for women and inclusive business as well as greenhouse gas emissions, water and waste. These targets and more sustainable ways of operating are being integrated into Unilever’s day-to-day business.


Progress towards the Unilever Sustainable Living Plan is monitored by the Unilever Leadership Executive and the Boards. The Unilever Sustainable Living Plan Council, comprising six external specialists in sustainability, guides and critiques the development of our strategy.

5.2 Social issues

  • Use of Facebook, Twitter to ‘troll’ and bully.

  • Capture of ‘big data’ to analyse consumer habits

  • Discrimination or lack of diversity in the workplace

Companies suffer reputation risk if their products or information gathering cause damage. The unauthorised release of data can cause financial damage to customers.

Poor recruitment policies leave companies open to accusations of discrimination and this can cause both reputational damage and can lead to legal claims.

Poor diversity policies can cause poor business results as products, services and employees no longer match up to what customers expect.

5.3 Ethical issues

For example, a pharmaceutical company is developing a new drug. Some of the ethical issues arising from this are:

Safeguarding the volunteers on whom the drug is tested

How much testing should be done before the drug is marketed? The more testing the greater the delay in releasing a drug very effective in treating a disease but, balancing that, more testing means less chance of undiscovered side effects.

What price should the drug be sold at? A high price might please shareholders and could enable more money to be spent on research and development of more drugs. However, a high price would mean that some patients and health services could not afford the drug. Should different prices be charged for the same drug in different countries depending on the country’s wealth? Poor ethical choices present risks, particularly reputational and compliance.

6 Test your knowledge

Two quick checks before you move on: work through the flashcards to fix this chapter’s key terms and definitions, then sit the objective questions for exam-style practice. Both mark themselves and explain the answers as you go.

Practice questions

Enterprise risk management

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