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Payoff Table - Specimen Exam Practice

VVicks11y ago
Hi , I am struggling to answer the question below : 2 Cement Co is a company specialising in the manufacture of cement, a product used in the building industry. The company has found that when weather conditions are good, the demand for cement increases since more building work is able to take place. Cement Co is now trying to work out the level of cement production for the coming year in order to maximise profits. The company has received the following estimates about the probable weather conditions and corresponding demand levels for the coming year: Weather Probability Demand Good 25% 350,000 bags Average 45% 280,000 bags Poor 30% 200,000 bags Each bag of cement sells for $9 and costs $4 to make. If cement is unsold at the end of the year, it has to be disposed of at a cost of $0·50 per bag. Cement Co has decided to produce at one of the three levels of production to match forecast demand. It now has to decide which level of cement production to select. Required: (a) Construct a pay-off table to show all the possible profit outcomes. (8 marks) (b) Determine the level of cement production the company should choose, based on the decision rule of maximin. Show your calculations clearly and justify your decision. (2 marks) (10 marks) I have worked out the question as follows: cement sells $9 - Cost to make $4 = $5 Knowledge Decision (Demand) Good AVG Poor (000's) 350 bags (350x5) 1750 280 bags (280x5) 1400 200 bags 200x5) 1000 After this I become confused and cannot get to an answer. Can you assist me further please ? Thank you in advance.
John MoffatJohn MoffatTutor11y ago#1
There is no need to type out a whole question - I can download the question from the ACCA website myself :-) You really need to watch the lecture on decision making under uncertainty. When you have watched the lecture, then ask me again about any specific problems you are having (given that you do have a printed answer to it).
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