Skip to content

Ask the Tutor ACCA PM

I need explanation of this

IIgrar10y ago
Hello, Sir! I just need the explanation of this sentence: "If there really is oil, there is 95% chance that the report will be favourable, but if there is no oil, there is only 10% chance that the report will indicate that there is oil." Can I understand it like this: If the survey says that there is oil they are 95% right, and if they say that there is no oil then they are 90% right. Thank you, and sorry for this silly question.
John MoffatJohn MoffatTutor10y ago#1
No - you cannot interpret it that way. If there is oil, then there is a 95% chance that the survey says that there is oil, and a 5% chance that the survey says there is no oil. If there is not oil, then there is a 90% chance that the survey says there is no oil, and a 10% chance that the survey says that there is oil. To sort it all out, you need to know the probabilities of there being oil.
Sign into reply to this topic.