BPP 2022 FORECASTING Q4.30 — OpenTuition Forums

((deleted)3y ago

Hi Tutors, I answered this question as the forecast sales volume for the quarter of 2015 being $4048 but the answer is actually $4053 I assume you have the exam kit at hand. I am trying to rationalise why the answer is $4053. Is it because in time series analysis, forecasting is based on past data therefore if the quarterly variations (units) from the previous year in the question (2014) was Q1: -4 Q2: -2 Q3: +1 Q4: +5 then we can assume that this will happen again in 2015????

John MoffatTutor3y ago#1

The seasonal variations are the average of past variations (nowhere in the question does it say that they are from 2014), and are always used when making future forecasts. This is all explained in my free lectures on time series analysis. The lectures are a complete free course for Paper MA and cover everything needed to be able to pass the exam well.

((deleted)3y ago#2

Thanks for your response John - looks like I have to revisit the lectures again ?

((deleted)3y ago#3

Thanks for your response John - looks like I have to revisit the lectures again ?

John MoffatTutor3y ago#4

You are welcome :-)

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