Time series analysis
A series can contain trend, seasonal, cyclical and irregular components. Select methods appropriate to the frequency and use case, check whether conditions have changed, and evaluate forecasts against later observations. Do not treat a historical pattern as a guarantee of the future.
Worked example
A retailer analyses monthly sales over three years, estimates a rising trend and regular December peaks, then compares a forecast with later actual sales.
Common mistake
Randomly reordering observations and thereby losing their timing, or treating correlation over time as proof of cause.
Where it appears in your exams
| Qualification | Exam | Relationship | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACCA | MA | Direct | September 2026–June 2027 |
| FIA | FMA | Direct | September 2026–June 2027 |