Terminal value
A terminal value avoids forecasting every future year individually. A constant-growth approach uses the first post-forecast cash flow divided by the appropriate required return less sustainable growth. It assumes the chosen cash-flow definition, reinvestment needs, risk and long-run growth are consistent and that the discount rate exceeds growth. Discount the terminal value from the end of the explicit forecast period to today. It can form a large part of total value, so sensitivity and economic plausibility are essential; a high growth assumption should not conceal weak near-term performance.
Worked example
FCFF expected in year 6 is $1.2 million, long-run growth is 3% and WACC is 9%. Terminal value at the end of year 5 is $1.2m/(0.09 − 0.03) = $20 million. It must still be discounted five years to obtain today's value.
Common mistake
Using year-5 cash flow without growing it to year 6, or treating a year-5 terminal value as already a time-zero amount.
Where it appears in your exams
| Qualification | Exam | Relationship | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACCA | AFM | Direct | September 2026–June 2027 |
| ACCA | FM | Direct | September 2026–June 2027 |
