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Sustainable dividend growth

A common estimate is g = b × r, where b is the proportion of earnings retained and r is the expected return on the reinvested funds. The approximation assumes the retention policy and returns remain stable and earnings growth translates into dividend growth. Historical growth can also be estimated using a compound rate, but it need not continue. Retaining more profit creates value only if reinvestment earns an appropriate return for its risk. A higher growth forecast should not be inserted into a valuation without examining feasibility and financing needs.

Worked example

If 40% of earnings are retained and new investment earns 15%, estimated sustainable growth is 0.40 × 15% = 6%. If retention later changes or the return on new projects falls, the 6% assumption must be reconsidered.

Common mistake

Multiplying the payout ratio by the return on reinvestment instead of the retention ratio, or assuming growth automatically creates value.

Where it appears in your exams

QualificationExamRelationshipPeriod
ACCA AFM Supporting September 2026–June 2027
ACCA FM Direct September 2026–June 2027