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Loss given default

Loss given default is conditional on a defined default event and is distinct from the probability of that event. A simple LGD estimate is one minus the recovery rate when both use the same exposure, costs and timing basis. More detailed measures can incorporate collateral, legal costs, collection timing and discounted recoveries. Expected credit loss in a simplified one-period model combines probability of default, exposure at default and LGD, while actual losses may differ. Contractual priority and economic conditions influence recovery.

Worked example

A lender expects to recover $300,000 of a $500,000 exposure after default, ignoring recovery costs and timing in this illustration. Recovery is 60%, so loss given default is 40%, or $200,000 if default occurs.

Common mistake

Confusing a 40% loss conditional on default with a 40% chance of default, or using an undiscounted recovery where the model requires discounted cash flows.

Where it appears in your exams

QualificationExamRelationshipPeriod
ACCA AFM Direct September 2026–June 2027