Dividend growth model
For constant sustainable growth g and required equity return ke greater than g, the ex-dividend share value is P0 = D1/(ke − g), where D1 is next year's expected dividend. Rearranging gives ke = D1/P0 + g. The model assumes a stable growth pattern indefinitely and is sensitive to small changes in growth or required return. Use an ex-dividend price and distinguish a dividend just paid from the next dividend. It is less suitable for businesses whose dividends are absent, unstable or not representative of distributions that can be sustained.
Worked example
A dividend of $0.30 has just been paid and is expected to grow at 4% indefinitely. With ke 10%, D1 is $0.312 and estimated ex-dividend value is $0.312/(0.10 − 0.04) = $5.20.
Common mistake
Putting the just-paid dividend in the numerator, or using the model when growth is equal to or greater than required return.
Where it appears in your exams
| Qualification | Exam | Relationship | Period |
|---|---|---|---|
| ACCA | AFM | Supporting | September 2026–June 2027 |
| ACCA | FM | Direct | September 2026–June 2027 |
