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Dividend growth model

For constant sustainable growth g and required equity return ke greater than g, the ex-dividend share value is P0 = D1/(ke − g), where D1 is next year's expected dividend. Rearranging gives ke = D1/P0 + g. The model assumes a stable growth pattern indefinitely and is sensitive to small changes in growth or required return. Use an ex-dividend price and distinguish a dividend just paid from the next dividend. It is less suitable for businesses whose dividends are absent, unstable or not representative of distributions that can be sustained.

Worked example

A dividend of $0.30 has just been paid and is expected to grow at 4% indefinitely. With ke 10%, D1 is $0.312 and estimated ex-dividend value is $0.312/(0.10 − 0.04) = $5.20.

Common mistake

Putting the just-paid dividend in the numerator, or using the model when growth is equal to or greater than required return.

Where it appears in your exams

QualificationExamRelationshipPeriod
ACCA AFM Supporting September 2026–June 2027
ACCA FM Direct September 2026–June 2027