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  3. In the multiplicative model, I understood where you take the total of average figures for each quarter. But where did 400.00 come from?

    In additive model, to make the total of seasonal variations “zero” we deducted the same figure,isn’t it? And then took the average so as to distribute among the 4 quarters.

    Kindly explain me about the 400 part.

    Thank you.

  4. Sir will they be telling us in the exam to calculate the trend based on how many periods/ months/ seasons moving average ?

    For example – will they be mentioning like this – ‘calculate the trend line based on a three month moving average’

    If not, how will we know how many periods to take ?

    • It was quarter 4, not quarter 3. I divided 0.69 by 4, which strictly means subtracting 0.1725 from each quarter. However to stick to 2 decimal places I subtracted 0.17 from 3 of them and 0.18 from the other.

  7. Multiplicative Q3 Table .. it was 95.35% , in the table u wrote 91.35 and solve it for 91.35%

    im really benefiting from ur lectures but this one is a bit too long , would be better if u hinted out at the question areas

    Thanks alot

  8. Mr. John, the lecture was delivered very well.

    I want to clear my doubt why you have shown the final result zero in the additive model?

    What is the advantage of using Multiplicative model over the additive model and how we would come to know which methods is feasible to use?

    Thank you

  11. Sir i really do not understand the averaging part, i am trying so hard to see what point am i missing but i do not, why do not we find the average of each year individually instead for example we are taking the second quarter of the first year and the first quarter of second year and finding their average and so on…
    Also the moving average part.

  13. why didnt we find the next 4 moving average of the moving averages to find the Trend but rather find the average of 2 moving averages.
    If the trend find is to be plotted on a graph, the line is not perfectly straight, so can one continue to average the and if yes will it be average of 2 of the trend figures or what?. I realised that if the sales is averaged on every 4 sales basis throughout until two point are gotten, the line will be straight. Can it be done practically and academically?

    • The 4 quarter moving average was to get the average sales per quarter.
      The only reason for centering it is because the middle quarter did not coincide with any one actual quarter. After centering it, we can then compare the actual sales in a quarter with the ‘average’ sales in the quarter.

      There would be no point in keep averaging. The only point is to average out the seasonality. In practice, the trend may be a smooth pattern (either linear or curved) and would be easier then to forecast than the actual sales which keep going up and down because of the seasonality.

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