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Forums › Ask ACCA Tutor Forums › Ask the Tutor ACCA MA – FIA FMA › Seasonal variations
Hi my question is
Trend
Y=5000+4000x
Where Y= quarterly sales volume in units
X= the quarter number ( where the first quater of 2009 = quater 17, the second quarter of 2009= quarter 18 etc)
Seasonal variations
Quater seasonal variation(units)
1 +3000
2 +1000
3 -1500
4 -2500
What would be the time series forecast of sales units for the third quater of 2010?
You would first forecast the trend by using the equation given and putting x as being 23 (because the first quarter of 2009 is 17, and the third quarter of 2010 (the following year) is 6 quarters later).
Then you would adjust by the seasonal variation and therefore subtract 1500.