IFRS15 Options / Breakage

Hi,

Appreciate if you can kindly help to have a look at the below:

In an example provided by a pwc guide, the situation is as follows:

Entity contracts with customer who paid $200 for Service A and an option to purchase Service B for $100.

Standalone selling price for A and B are $200 and $160 respectively.
Estimated standalone selling price for the option is $50 taking into account the possibility of exercising the option.

As a result, allocation of transaction price would be $160 to A and $40 to option for B.

It follows that when option is exercised by customer afterwards, Revenue of $100 + $40 = $140 is recognised.

Question:

Because the incremental benefit of the option offered is $160 – $100 = $60 for getting service B, and the standalone selling price given is $50, would that imply a probability of exercising the option of 83%? (e.g. entity expects a breakage of 17%)

If so should be recognise revenue of ($40/83%) + $100 = $150?

Many thanks,