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Forums › Ask ACCA Tutor Forums › Ask the Tutor ACCA MA – FIA FMA › Forecasting
I think the formula is Y/T=S. But why 4700 is divided by 0.9?
Unemployment numbers actually recorded in a town for the second quarter of the year 2000 were
4,700. The underlying trend at this point was 4,300 people and the seasonal factor is 0.92. Using the
multiplicative model for seasonal adjustment, what is the seasonally-adjusted figure (in whole numbers)
for the quarter?
A 3,932
B 3,956
C 5,068
D 5,109
It is divided by 0.92, not 0.9
Since the actual is 0.92 times the trend figure when doing the original calculations, then if the actual turns out to be 4,700 then if there had been no seasonality you would have expected the actual figure to have been 4,700/0.92.