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Expected value

Forums › Ask ACCA Tutor Forums › Ask the Tutor ACCA FM Exams › Expected value

  • This topic has 1 reply, 2 voices, and was last updated 5 years ago by John Moffat.
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  • August 13, 2019 at 11:31 am #527334
    hijo
    Member
    • Topics: 11
    • Replies: 6
    • ☆

    Sir didn’t getting the below sentence mean
    Expected values are more useful for repeat decision rather than one off

    August 13, 2019 at 2:51 pm #527357
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54655
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    I guess you were exempt from Paper PM (was F5), because this is something examined a lot in PM.

    Suppose the return from something is either 100 with a probability of 0.3 or 200 with a probability of 0.7.
    The expected value is 170.

    If the decision is only made once then the return will be 100 or it will be 200 – it will not be 170.

    If it is done many times, then sometimes it will be 100 and sometimes it will be 200, but on average it will be 170.

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