Contingency Consideration- Applyling probability

Relevant Part of a question

On 1 October 20X4, Kutchen acquired 70% of the equity interests of House, a public limited company. The purchase consideration comprised 20 million shares of $1 of Kutchen at the acquisition date and 5 million shares on 31 March 20X6 if House’s net profit after taxation was at least $4 million for the year ending on th hat date. The market price of Kutchen’s shares on 1 October 20X4 was $2 per share and that of House was $4·20 per share. It is felt that there is a 20% chance of the profit target being met.

In BPP, for the above , the contingency consideration is being calculated as (5*4.2*.2)
Which apply the 20% of chance.. Is it correct ? I have not seen in any part of the text applying such type of calculation .

As per my understanding the Contingency consideration shoud be 5*402= 21

Kindly coment

Thanks

Satheesh