Suppose we have a scenario where the values for the sales contribution for each year were diiferrent, how do we calculate the sensitivity of the project to sales contribution?
Assume in year 2 the contribution per unit was $3 and in year 4 $3.50.

hi sir i just dont get it why is there negatives and positives in the calculation of sensitivity analysis and as in the cost of investment was positive and for the sales volume is a negative sensitivity.As well how do you arrive to the cost of capital sensitivity analysis?how do you perform the calculations?

If the sensitivity has a low percentage do we say that the component of NPV calculated is has a high sensitivity? I thought we would say the sensitivity to change is high if the percentage is low. The semantics confuse me.

Hi, John. I don’t understand under what circumstances should fixed costs be involved in the calculation? And under what circumstances fixed costs should be ignored in the calculation . Thanks.

When calculating the NPV all incremental costs are included.

As far as calculating the sensitive of individual items, it depends what changes as a result. So if asked for the sensitivity of fixed costs then we calculate the PV of the fixed costs. However if asked for the sensitive of, for example the selling price or the contribution, the fixed costs are not relevant because they will not change if the selling price or the contribution changes.

Hey John, I’m looking for the lecture in which the IRR of a perpetuity is calculated. I remembering you explaining it but cannot find that very lecture. Could you please help me out?

issmmmm: I would really need to see the actual question to be able to answer you properly, and the ACCA has not published this question.

If it was really as you state (in which case I assume is was one of the 2 mark questions) then you would have to do it in the same way as calculating an IRR i.e. try two different tax rates and then approximate between them.

Sir In Exam Sept 2018 there was a question related to sensitive Analysis in which examiner asked which Tax rate will be used which make NPV zero. Can you please explain how to calculate sensitive analysis for a ta rate. looking forward to your help
Thanks in Advance

daarmc says

Hi John, thanks for these lectures

Why is the scrap value changed, surely it is 15k in 15 years?

John Moffat says

The 15,000 is obviously only an estimate (as are all of the flows in investment appraisal questions).

princevisuals says

Suppose we have a scenario where the values for the sales contribution for each year were diiferrent, how do we calculate the sensitivity of the project to sales contribution?

Assume in year 2 the contribution per unit was $3 and in year 4 $3.50.

John Moffat says

We can’t in that situation. We could only calculate the sensitivity of the two contributions separately.

Emmanuel Mashaya says

How about the units produced John???

Working it out on my own i had multiplied the 15000 units per annum by 15 years to get 225000 units of the life of the investment.

My workings were like this to the first example

Profit ($2.75-$1.00) $1.75/unit

**Multiplied by Units (15000pa *15) 225000 units

Total profit over the investment life $393,750,00

Multiplied by Annuity Factor 5.847370099

Present Value of all the Profits $2,302,402,00

Scrap Value * (1/1.15^15) $1,843,00

Present Value of all Inflows $2,304,245,00

Investment Initial Cost ($150,000,00)

Net Present Value $2,154,245,00

John Moffat says

We apply the annuity factor to the equal annual cash flow (just as I do in the lecture).

I think it would help you to revise annuity factors by watching the free Paper MA lectures on investment appraisal.

meetz says

hi sir i just dont get it why is there negatives and positives in the calculation of sensitivity analysis and as in the cost of investment was positive and for the sales volume is a negative sensitivity.As well how do you arrive to the cost of capital sensitivity analysis?how do you perform the calculations?

John Moffat says

The + or – indicates whether the flows needs to increase or decrease for the NPV to be zero.

For the cost of capital we calculate the IRR as explained in an earlier chapter.

nandini107 says

in the answer, haven’t you considered only one year worth of contribution and fixed costs? when it should be multiplied by 15 for all the years?

John Moffat says

No multipying by the 15 year annuity factor discounts all of the 15 years.

wwwilliams says

If the sensitivity has a low percentage do we say that the component of NPV calculated is has a high sensitivity? I thought we would say the sensitivity to change is high if the percentage is low. The semantics confuse me.

John Moffat says

The lower the % then the more sensitive it is to change.

wwwilliams says

thank you

John Moffat says

You are welcome 🙂

yinnnn says

Hi, John. I don’t understand under what circumstances should fixed costs be involved in the calculation? And under what circumstances fixed costs should be ignored in the calculation . Thanks.

John Moffat says

When calculating the NPV all incremental costs are included.

As far as calculating the sensitive of individual items, it depends what changes as a result. So if asked for the sensitivity of fixed costs then we calculate the PV of the fixed costs. However if asked for the sensitive of, for example the selling price or the contribution, the fixed costs are not relevant because they will not change if the selling price or the contribution changes.

visheshparyani says

Hey John, I’m looking for the lecture in which the IRR of a perpetuity is calculated. I remembering you explaining it but cannot find that very lecture. Could you please help me out?

John Moffat says

I cannot remember which lecture, but the IRR of a perpetuity is simply the annual cash flow divided by the initial investment expressed as a %.

visheshparyani says

Thanks John 🙂

John Moffat says

You are welcome 🙂

natalieward93 says

How have you calculated the contribution at 2.95 per unit x 15,000?

natalieward93 says

sorry was on the wrong example

John Moffat says

issmmmm: I would really need to see the actual question to be able to answer you properly, and the ACCA has not published this question.

If it was really as you state (in which case I assume is was one of the 2 mark questions) then you would have to do it in the same way as calculating an IRR i.e. try two different tax rates and then approximate between them.

issmmmm says

thank you very much sir for your response I will try as per your instruction .

issmmmm says

Sir In Exam Sept 2018 there was a question related to sensitive Analysis in which examiner asked which Tax rate will be used which make NPV zero. Can you please explain how to calculate sensitive analysis for a ta rate. looking forward to your help

Thanks in Advance