Spike co MCQ

Spike co began operating a new mine in Jan 20×3 under a 5 year government licence which required spike co to landscape the area after mining ceased at an estimated cost of $100000

As per IAS 37 is provision required in financial statements for year ended 31 dec 20×4?

Sir the above statement is true but one 1 thing 1 want to ask that,
for provision to be created there should be present obligation + reliavle estimate + probable chances of outflow

Sir here, there is a present obligation, reliable estimate of $100000 has also been made , but how we can say that there are probable chances of outflow in this question?