Calculation of provision

Dear tutor,
I am confused about the calculation of provision when there is a single obligation.

Suppose there is a court case and with the probability of 40% we have to pay $1M and with probability of 60% we have to pay $3M.

Now the provision amount is th expected amount = 1 × 40% + 3 × 60% = $2.2 M

Or

it is the most likely outcome = $3 M

??

Would you please help me on the above matter?

Thank you very much