Virtually certain or probable

Dear sir,

Regarding to insurance proceed in Q4.c.iv of MJ21 :

“It is unclear which events and costs are covered by insurance policies and significant uncertainty exists as to whether any compensation will be paid. Before the FS were approved, it was probable that the insurance claim for the loss of NCA would be paid…”

I watched the debrief on this question and did not understand that why Loss of NCV is virtually certain and should be recognised. It should be disclosed only because the wording “probable” is clear in the question.

Thanks