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VaR – confidence level

Forums › Ask ACCA Tutor Forums › Ask the Tutor ACCA AFM Exams › VaR – confidence level

  • This topic has 1 reply, 2 voices, and was last updated 11 months ago by John Moffat.
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  • April 8, 2025 at 10:57 pm #716524
    Maolin
    Participant
    • Topics: 3
    • Replies: 1
    • ☆

    Hi Tutor, I have a question regarding the concept of confidence levels. From my understanding, when we say the confidence level is 95%, it means there is a 2.5% chance that the value might fall below the lower tail, and a 2.5% chance that it might exceed the upper tail, assuming a standard normal distribution.

    However, during the lecture, we considered only the lower tail, where the probability of the value falling below this threshold is 5%. This seems different from what I expected, as I thought it should only be 2.5% for the lower tail, with the remaining 2.5% corresponding to the upper tail. I understand that we are measuring the value at risk, but I’m curious as to why the lower tail is assigned a 5% probability in this context.

    Could you please clarify this? Thank you so much for your help in advance!

    April 9, 2025 at 8:28 am #716532
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54830
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    It is because with VAR we are only concerned about falling below a certain level. Anything above that level we are happy with but are worried about the chances of falling below that level.

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