- This topic has 3 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 4 years ago by
.
- Posts
thank you very much for your help. can you please help me with some pits of the following question.
A company is preparing its forecast sales information for the end of the current year. the actual sales information for the first nine months of the current year are as follows.
Sales volume in units
JAN 172100
FEB 149600
MAR 165800
April 182600
may 160100
june 197100
July 174600
August 190800
Sept 207600the sales volume trend is to be identified using a 5 moving point average what is the monthly trend. secondly what is the expected sales volume including seasonal variation for December.
this is what i have done so far.
Months sales volume Trend 5 points moving Variation.
jan 172100
feb 149600
March 165800 166040 -240
april 182600 171040 +11560
may 160100 176040 -15940
june 197100 181040 +16060
july 174600 186040 -11440
Aug 190800 191040 -240
sept 207600. 196040 +11560
oct
Nov
Dec
that is how far I managed to do the question i will provide the answer for the figures below but i have struggled to find where the figures came from could you please help me with this bit of the question Many thanks for your help appreciated. and i am assuming always there is nothing to compare for the first two months and the last two months of the year i am not sure weather i am right or wrong.october no sales volume but the trend says 201040 variation -15940
Nov no sales volume trend says 206040 variation +16060
Dec sales volume 199600 trend 211040 variation -11440.
Many thanks.The trend is increasing by 5,000 per month between March and April.
So it continues to increase by 5,000 a month which gives 206,040 in October.Given that it is a 5 point moving average, the seasonal variation repeats every 5 months. So in October it will be the same as in May, and is 15,940.
The same logic applies for November and December.
- The topic ‘Time series analysis/ Trends’ is closed to new replies.