Time series analysis

Hi John

In this section of chapter 12 you explain that a method of forecasting involves ‘forecasting the trend’. I understand the trend line in the example are the centered moving averages, ie, 86, 88.25,90.63 etc. You describe a method at the end where you “forecast the trend and add the average season variation”. I understand the seasonal variation part, but when you say forecast the trend do you mean extrapolate the trend figures into 2003 to come up with a figure for say quarter 2 of 2003 or any given period in the future. How is this done, using regression analysis?

Cheers

Hugh