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How do you calculate Seasonal Adjustment using Multiplicative Model.
What we learnt was, (Actual/ Trend) x 100. But in 2012 June Answer Sheet, they have calculated as (Trend/Actual) x 100.I believe the calculation of time series analysis is no longer examinable which is a relief because I do not know how to do it! However, let’s wait for Mr John to confirm that.
Calculations will not be asked.
You are expected to know the idea, but you will not be asked calculations.(However, you are mistaken – in the answer to the June 2012 question the seasonal variations have been given to you and they then applied them to the trend forecast to get a forecast of the actual. They were applied as usual – actual/trend x 100. So, for example, the first forecast is 90.42% (or 0.9042) times the trend.)
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