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Dear sir,
Unemployment numbers actually recorded for 2nd quarter of year 2000 were 4700. The underlying trend at this point was 4300.& seasonal factor= 0.92.what is seasonally adjusted figure for the quarter? The answer is 4700/0.92=5109… I don’t understand it bcz according to me it should be 4300*0.92. Sir please explain it…If you were forecasting what the numbers would be for the quarter (and therefore didn’t yet know what the actual figure was), then what you want to do would be correct. You would take the forecast trend and multiply it by 0.92.
However, here we know what the actual figure was. We also know that in quarter 2 it is always expected to be lower, and so what we are doing is ‘working backwards’ to see what the actual figure would have been if there was not seasonality. So the answer of 5109 is correct.
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