The following variations and trend have been calculated for sales over a period of time using additive model:
seasonal variation
quarter 1 +25
quarter 2 -10
quarter 3 -30
quarter 4 +15
trend +50 per quarter
the last known trend reading was taken in year 3,quarter 3 and was $1750
Question:what would be the time series value for year 4 quarter 3?
please help!!!!
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MAtime series
11y ago#1The last trend reading was year 3 quarter 4. So, by year 4 quarter 3, three more quarters have passed. So the trend forecast will be 1750 + (3 x 50) = 1900.
Quarter 3 has a seasonal variation of -30, so the actual forecast for year 4, quarter 3 will be 1900 - 30 = 1870.
thanks for the reply sir, but the answer on the answer sheet is $1920. I'm confused.
11y ago#3Sorry - my fault.
There are four more quarters (not three) from year 3 quarter 3 to year 4 quarter 3.
So the trend forecast will be 1750 + (4 x 50) = 1950.
Quarter 3 has a seasonal variation of -30, so the actual forecast is 1950 - 30 = 1920.
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