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Forums › Ask ACCA Tutor Forums › Ask the Tutor ACCA MA – FIA FMA › Seasonal Variations
Hi Mr. John,
This question uses the multiplicative model and it is pretty straight forward, however i just want to know how to arrive at the answer if we had to use the additive model (If it is even possible).
In a time series analysis, the multiplicative model is used to forecast sales and the following seasonal variations apply:
Quarter 1 2 3 4
Seasonal variation 1.2 1.3 0.4 ?
The actual sales values for the first two quarters of 2006 were:
Quarter 1: $125,000
Quarter 2: $130,000
What is the seasonal variation for the fourth quarter?
A –2.9
B 0.9
C 1.0
D 1.1
The variations have been given as multiplicative. We cannot therefore use the additive model.