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Which of following (select all that apply) would be likely to encourage an organization to use Scenario Planning
1. The organization has not previously experienced any major surprises or expensive strategic mistakes
2. The Organization has achieved all of its objectives and operate in stable external external environment
3. Uncertainty in the industry is high , relative to management’s ability to predict or adjust to change
4. organization often experience Group think, leading to a narrow future
5. Competitor’s are increasingly using scenario planning as part of their strategy formulation process.
Please state the answer Kaplan (or whoever) suggests.
1 and 2 are almost the same. Stable environments and things going to plan are unlikely to encourage scenario planning – which is really looking at feasible possible futures. That’s not to say thar stable businesses shouldn’t scenario plan, but stability is unlikely to encourage that effort.
3 Yes, scenario planning forces an element of preplanning. Foreseen is forearmed.
4 Yes. It is important not to fall into group think. Scenario planning would help to break out of that.
5 Yes. If competitors find it useful, so might you.