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Dear sir,
I do have watched your lectures concerning risk and uncertainty but I still have some doubt concerning example 2(Decision Tree)1.”The research cannot be guaranteed to be accurate. However, if the research indicates a good result, then the probability of the actual result being good is 91%”
– You do have explained what does the sentence means but still I am having some difficulties in understanding the point.
-Can you in words,briefly, re-explain it?
2.And by the way, is the perfect knowledge lecture and the topic “perfect information” the same thing?
Thanks.The research is not perfect, and so even if it forecasts that the result will be ‘good’ then it might be wrong and the result might end up being not good.
There is a 91% probability that the research is in fact correct and the result will be good, but there is a 9% probability that even though it predicts a good result it could be wrong and the actual result will not be good.
Perfect information and perfect knowledge mean the same thing.
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