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real option calculation Penn co

Forums › ACCA Forums › ACCA AFM Advanced Financial Management Forums › real option calculation Penn co

  • This topic has 0 replies, 1 voice, and was last updated 6 years ago by misbahkiran.
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  • July 31, 2019 at 10:53 am #525714
    misbahkiran
    Participant
    • Topics: 109
    • Replies: 193
    • ☆☆☆

    Hi friends

    Has anyone of you done the calculation of real options in this technical article?

    here is the link of the article

    https://www.accaglobal.com/gb/en/student/exam-support-resources/professional-exams-study-resources/p4/technical-articles/international-project-appraisal—part-2.html

    i am little confused on the real option calculation

    its not given in the article please tell me am i right?

    OPTION to abandon after 2 years= Put option

    Pe=offer from Elders co $1,200million
    Pa=value of the asset, Pv of cash flows forgone (319.01+191.13+684.41=1194.55million)
    standard deviation= 30 percent
    t= 2years
    r=4.5%

    N(d1)= -.022 =0.5-.0080=.492
    N(d2)=.446=.5+.1736=.6763

    call option= -570 (i have doubt on this value..what does negative value mean?)
    put option=625$

    NpV is 146.13 but put option is 625$ so the strategic value will be

    625+146=771

    project has positive NPV so if we abandon it after 2 years it still give us value of 625$ which is more than the NPV of 5 years.

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