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Probability Analysis

Forums › Ask ACCA Tutor Forums › Ask the Tutor ACCA FM Exams › Probability Analysis

  • This topic has 2 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 7 years ago by vimiii.
Viewing 3 posts - 1 through 3 (of 3 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • May 14, 2018 at 3:35 pm #451876
    vimiii
    Member
    • Topics: 3
    • Replies: 3
    • ☆

    Dear Sir,

    From the Paper June 2010, Question ZSE Co, can you please explain how the answer to part (iv) is 18%? what do we have to take into consideration to calculate this percentage?

    Overdraft limit is $2m.

    May 14, 2018 at 9:45 pm #451941
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54833
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    You must not post links to pirate websites on this website – the link has been deleted.

    These websites are in breach of the ACCA copyright, and downloading from them is both unethical and illegal.
    You must buy a Revision Kit from one of the ACCA approved publishers.

    You multiply the two probabilities together. In period one the will get $4000 60% of the time. Of those 60% of the times, then in period 2 they will get $7,000 only 30% of those 60% of times. So the probability of getting a total of $11,000 (4000 + 7000) and therefore ending up with $10,500 (because they were 500 overdrawn at the start) is 60% x 30% = 18% (or 0.18)

    May 15, 2018 at 5:48 pm #452109
    vimiii
    Member
    • Topics: 3
    • Replies: 3
    • ☆

    Really sorry Sir, i didn’t realise that. Thank you. You just taught me a lesson on Ethics 🙂

    Actually i do have the BPP Revision Kit.(just copied it so that i don’t have to type)

    Regarding the question Sir, is my understanding as per below correct?
    Do we have to take 4000 and 7000 because they exceed the $2m limit?

    $
    Period 1 (60% x 4000=2400)> 2000 limit 4000
    Period 2 (30% x 7000=2100)> 2000 limit 7000
    Total 11000
    Overdrawn (500)
    10500

    Would it have been correct if i had deducted the $500 from the $4000? Or should it be deducted from the Total? (the value would still exceed $2000 limit)

    Had there been $3800 instead of $4000 (60% x 3800=2280)>2000 limit

    But if i had deducted the $500,then (60% x (3800-500)=1980)<2000 limit

    Please clarify Sir.

    Thank you very much.

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    Posts
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