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Probability Analysis

VVi8y ago
Dear Sir, From the Paper June 2010, Question ZSE Co, can you please explain how the answer to part (iv) is 18%? what do we have to take into consideration to calculate this percentage? Overdraft limit is $2m.
John MoffatJohn MoffatTutor8y ago#1
You must not post links to pirate websites on this website - the link has been deleted. These websites are in breach of the ACCA copyright, and downloading from them is both unethical and illegal. You must buy a Revision Kit from one of the ACCA approved publishers. You multiply the two probabilities together. In period one the will get $4000 60% of the time. Of those 60% of the times, then in period 2 they will get $7,000 only 30% of those 60% of times. So the probability of getting a total of $11,000 (4000 + 7000) and therefore ending up with $10,500 (because they were 500 overdrawn at the start) is 60% x 30% = 18% (or 0.18)
VVi8y ago#2
Really sorry Sir, i didn't realise that. Thank you. You just taught me a lesson on Ethics :) Actually i do have the BPP Revision Kit.(just copied it so that i don't have to type) Regarding the question Sir, is my understanding as per below correct? Do we have to take 4000 and 7000 because they exceed the $2m limit? $ Period 1 (60% x 4000=2400)> 2000 limit 4000 Period 2 (30% x 7000=2100)> 2000 limit 7000 Total 11000 Overdrawn (500) 10500 Would it have been correct if i had deducted the $500 from the $4000? Or should it be deducted from the Total? (the value would still exceed $2000 limit) Had there been $3800 instead of $4000 (60% x 3800=2280)>2000 limit But if i had deducted the $500,then (60% x (3800-500)=1980)<2000 limit Please clarify Sir. Thank you very much.
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