Probability

Hi, would you be so kind as to help me understand what I’m doing wrong in the following question, please?

Question #214 of CIMA Official Exam Practice Kit by Kaplan, published in 2017:
“A company knows that sales for a new product will either be at a high level, or at a low level. There is a 65% chance that sales will be at a high level. A market research company will predict the future sales level. Their forecasts are known to be correct 85% of the time.

If the company receives a forecast of low sales from the market researchers, what is the probability that they will subsequently achieve high sales?”

Suggested Solution: “24.68%”.

I structured my answer the following way.

Forecast | High Sales (65%) | Low Sales (35%) |
—————————————————————————-|
Correct (85%) | .85*.65 = .5525 | .85*.35 = .2975 | 85%
Incorrect (15%) | .15*.65 = .0975 | .15*.35 = .0525 | 15%
—————————————————————————-|
Sales 65% 35% | 100%

Since the company is correct 85% of the time the sum of that row must equal 85% and the same is true for when they are incorrect. By the same token, the columns pertaining to High Sales should be multiplied by .65 and the rows for the Correct forecast should be multiplied by .85 and so on.

So the question wants to know the probability that the forecasting company incorrectly predicts low sales (.0525), but sales actually turn out to be high (.65), therefore .0525/.65 = 8%

Thanks for the help once again.