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Probability

Forums › Ask ACCA Tutor Forums › Ask the Tutor ACCA PM Exams › Probability

  • This topic has 3 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 8 years ago by John Moffat.
Viewing 4 posts - 1 through 4 (of 4 total)
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  • October 13, 2016 at 10:35 am #343165
    anu1234
    Member
    • Topics: 78
    • Replies: 65
    • ☆☆

    Why is probability always 1.. whats the logic

    October 13, 2016 at 11:24 am #343174
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54680
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    Probability is not always 1 at all !!

    If there is a 20% chance of something happening, then the probability of it happening is 0.2.
    If there is a 30% chance of something happening then the probability of it happening is 0.3.

    The total of all the probabilities of all the possible things that can happen is 1, because there is a 100% chance that one of the things will happen – it is certain that one of the outcomes will occur.

    October 13, 2016 at 3:38 pm #343200
    anu1234
    Member
    • Topics: 78
    • Replies: 65
    • ☆☆

    Okay.

    Regarding EV, I saw a limitation that its a long term average. What does that mean

    October 14, 2016 at 8:08 am #343253
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54680
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    You obviously have not watched my lectures on this, because I explain it (and I cannot type out all my lectures here).

    If a decision is made only once then the outcome will be just one of those that are possible. It is only if the decision keeps being repeated that the average outcome will be the average of all the possible outcomes.

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