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Macaulay Duration vs. Discounted Payback Period

Forums › Ask ACCA Tutor Forums › Ask the Tutor ACCA AFM Exams › Macaulay Duration vs. Discounted Payback Period

  • This topic has 4 replies, 3 voices, and was last updated 3 years ago by John Moffat.
Viewing 5 posts - 1 through 5 (of 5 total)
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  • April 4, 2018 at 11:03 am #444952
    hemraj123
    Member
    • Topics: 110
    • Replies: 188
    • ☆☆☆

    Sir, I would like to understand the difference between Macaulay duration and Discounted payback period.

    Discounted payback refers to the point when the amount invested will be recovered including the effect of time value of money.

    Macaulay duration also seems the same but here it talks about the time when we recover the value from the bond.

    These two seem similar but if calculated, the answers are different.

    Could you please help me understand the difference between the 2?

    Thanks

    April 4, 2018 at 7:36 pm #445020
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54675
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    They are similar. However the payback period only looks at the flows within the payback period and ignores all later flows. The duration considers all of the flows and works out an average.

    June 27, 2021 at 9:12 am #626443
    tannyye
    Participant
    • Topics: 1
    • Replies: 4
    • ☆

    Sir, I appreciate the fact that your answer are similar to model answers from ACCA. I also appreciate the fact that the theory behind Macaulay Duration caused the formula to make an average that reflects different payouts. What I dont appreciate, or dont understand, however, is the statement that “duration, measures the average time required to recover the initial investment if discounted at IRR or the present value of the project if discounted at cost of capital.” due to the fact that the payout at the produced average time always ranged between 50% and 100% of the initial investment or present value of the project. We will never receive an exact 100% payback at that time weighted average period. This is because the difference between the discounted payback at irr and duration using irr, is being reflected as the bulk cash flow paid in which period. The duration method sacrificed accuracy to show that a project that pays its bulk cashflow upfront is better. While it accounts for the bulk cashflow upfront and the cashflow after the payback period, it also ignores whether 100% of the initial investment have been paid back. It even ignores how much was invested to initiate the project. My understanding is that we should use both methods hand in hand to not just determine the project with the best liquidity but to also have the extra knowledge when we can EXACTLY get back our initial investment assuming other assumptions are correct.

    Thus I conclude that the statement produced by ACCA is not entirely correct. And I would advise that we should state the advantages and disadvantages of both methods clearly, otherwise when we are working, we might potentially mislead others who dont really understand the duration method either.

    June 27, 2021 at 2:34 pm #626465
    tannyye
    Participant
    • Topics: 1
    • Replies: 4
    • ☆

    tannyye wrote:Sir, I appreciate the fact that your answer are similar to model answers from ACCA. I also appreciate the fact that the theory behind Macaulay Duration caused the formula to make an average that reflects different payouts. What I dont appreciate, or dont understand, however, is the statement that “duration, measures the average time required to recover the initial investment if discounted at IRR or the present value of the project if discounted at cost of capital.” due to the fact that the payout at the produced average time always ranged between 50% and 100% of the initial investment or present value of the project. We will never receive an exact 100% payback at that time weighted average period. This is because the difference between the discounted payback at irr and duration using irr, is being reflected as the bulk cash flow paid in which period. The duration method sacrificed accuracy to show that a project that pays its bulk cashflow upfront is better. While it accounts for the bulk cashflow upfront and the cashflow after the payback period, it also ignores whether 100% of the initial investment have been paid back. It even ignores how much was invested to initiate the project. My understanding is that we should use both methods hand in hand to not just determine the project with the best liquidity but to also have the extra knowledge when we can EXACTLY get back our initial investment assuming other assumptions are correct.

    P.S. I realize the payback methods may only be applicable to projects. We know the payback period of bonds, it is always the last year.

    June 27, 2021 at 2:45 pm #626468
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54675
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    It would seem that maybe you have been reading the lecture notes which would be completely pointless without watching the lectures, given that they are only lecture notes.

    The Macauley duration itself relates to bonds and is a weighted average time. However (as I make clear in the my lectures) it is not saying that we would receive exactly 100% payback in the weighted average time, and that is not really what is relevant anyway.

    The real purpose of the calculation is to be able to compare the sensitivity of the market values of bonds to changes in interest rates (as they affect the investors required rates of return). It Is not calculated primarily to assess liquidity,

    Calculations of the Macauley Duration (and of the duration and the modified duration) are not often asked in the exam (and discussion about them is asked even less) so I really would not spend more time experimenting as you seem to have done a dozen times,

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  • The topic ‘Macaulay Duration vs. Discounted Payback Period’ is closed to new replies.

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