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interest risk hedging, number of contracts Awan Co, December 2013

Forums › Ask ACCA Tutor Forums › Ask the Tutor ACCA AFM Exams › interest risk hedging, number of contracts Awan Co, December 2013

  • This topic has 1 reply, 2 voices, and was last updated 4 years ago by John Moffat.
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  • February 3, 2021 at 1:39 pm #608968
    bbzhao
    Member
    • Topics: 9
    • Replies: 1
    • ☆

    The question is:
    Awan Co is expecting to receive $48,000,000 on 1 February 2014, which will be invested until it is required for a large project on 1 June 2014. Due to uncertainty in the markets, the company is of the opinion that it is likely that interest rates will fluctuate significantly over the coming months, although it is difficult to predict whether they will increase or decrease.
    Awan Co can invest funds at the relevant inter-bank rate less 20 basis points. The current interbank rate is 4.09%. However, Awan Co is of the opinion that interest rates could increase or decrease by as much as 0.9% over the coming months.
    It can be assumed that settlement for the futures and options contracts is at the end of the month and that basis diminishes to zero at contact maturity at a constant rate, based on monthly time intervals. Assume that it is 1 November 2013 now and that there is no basis risk.
    Three-month $ futures: $2,000,000 contract size
    Prices quoted in basis at 100- annual % yield
    December 2013: 94.8
    March 2014: 94.76
    June 2014: 94.69

    My question is:
    When I’m calculating the number of the contracts, I found the answer took the term of the loan (in this question is from 1 Feb to 1 Jun), which is four months, however, when calculating the basis risk, which is just before the loan begins (1 Nov to 1 Feb). I may not understand how this works, I think we should take 3 months (1 Nov to 1 Feb) the same as the period that we need to hedge the interest risk.

    Thank you

    February 3, 2021 at 3:37 pm #608987
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54689
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    When calculating the number of contracts we always multiply the amount by the length of the deposit (in this case 4 months) divided by 3 (always 3 because they are always 3 month futures).

    We are dealing in March futures (the first futures to end after the date the deposit starts) and they expire 5 months from now.

    We are hedging the risk of interest rates changing between now and the date the deposit starts, which is 3 months from now.

    Therefore on the date the loan starts there will be 2 months left before the future ends, and so the basis will have fallen to 2/5 of what it currently is.

    I do suggest that you watch my free lectures on interest rate risk management where I explain all this in detail, with examples.

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