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  • This topic has 3 replies, 3 voices, and was last updated 6 years ago by John Moffat.
Viewing 4 posts - 1 through 4 (of 4 total)
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  • August 10, 2016 at 7:02 pm #332581
    shilpamary
    Member
    • Topics: 99
    • Replies: 81
    • ☆☆

    can you help me out with question 77 ZSE CO of BPP text(sept 2016-june 2017) i didnt understand the working of subquestion (iii) and (iv) of (a) part and also Part (b)

    the probability of a negative cash balance at end of period 2

    ” ” of exceeding the overdraft limit at end of period 2

    August 11, 2016 at 6:53 am #332642
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54664
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    In future, please do not head up questions ‘help’ but state the topic of the question. (The reason is so that all users can get the benefit of the answers easily.)

    I do not have the BPP Study Text – only the Revision Kit.
    However I have the question in the Revision Kit (it is a past exam question).

    To get the probability of two things both happening, you multiply the individual probabilities together.
    So, for example, the probability of 8,000 in the first year and 7,000 in the second year (and so a total of 14,500 – there was already an overdraft of 500)) is 0.10 x 0.20 = 0.02
    Similarly, the probability of 8,000 in the first year and 3,000 in the second year (so a total of 10,500) is 0.10 x 0.50 = 0.05
    Also, the probability of 8,000 in the first year and (9000) in the second year (so a total of (1500) ) is 0.10 x 0.20 = 0.02.

    You need to do the same for all 9 possible combinations.

    When you have done that, then the probability of a negative cash balance is the total of all the probabilities of those combinations ending up with a negative balance.

    Similarly, the probability of exceeding the overdraft limit of 2,000 is the total of the probabilities for all combinations that end up with a balance of more than (2000)

    April 24, 2019 at 12:16 am #513921
    muhammadazim
    Participant
    • Topics: 0
    • Replies: 1
    • ☆

    “of exceeding the overdraft limit at end of period 2”
    it would be great if some one could explain how BPP arrived at
    “There is a 0.18 (0.12+0.06) or 18%…….”

    Why not included 0.02 (30)

    Thank you.

    April 24, 2019 at 7:25 am #513941
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54664
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    The question says that the overdraft limit is $2,000.

    The only closing balances that exceed this limit are the overdraft of 5,500 (probability 0.12) and the overdraft of 11,500 (probability of 0.06).

    The overdraft of 1,500 does not exceed the 2,000 limit.

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