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Gogarth Co vs Boullain CO

Forums › Ask ACCA Tutor Forums › Ask the Tutor ACCA AFM Exams › Gogarth Co vs Boullain CO

  • This topic has 6 replies, 4 voices, and was last updated 1 year ago by John Moffat.
Viewing 7 posts - 1 through 7 (of 7 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • August 28, 2021 at 8:07 pm #633265
    aidosha
    Participant
    • Topics: 2
    • Replies: 1
    • ☆

    Dear Tutor,

    thank you in advance

    i am struglling with understanding logics in predicted futures rate, for logic from case to case semms inconsistent

    for example, in past paper from March/June 2021, Question 3, Gogarth Co

    Predicted futures rate = 0·2366 + ([0·2378 – 0·2366] x 2/3) = 0·2374

    where June future price + (difference sep and june) *2/3 (i assume because july+august (where it is closed under this contract)/(july+aug+sep, when it is end by terms)

    or
    Alternatively, use spot rate, 0·2358 + ([0·2378 – 0·2358] x 4/5) = 0·2374

    where May 1 spot rate + (difference sep and may) *4/5 (i assume because may+june+july+august (where it is closed under this contract)/(may+june+ july+aug+sep, when it is end by terms)

    so i assume i understand the logic written above.

    However, now i am solving Boullain CO, where other approach is used for calculation

    Calculation of futures price
    Spot rate (US$/€1) = 1/0·8707 = 1·1485 ( spot at march 1)

    Predicted futures using spot rate = 1·1422 + ((1·1485 – 1·1422) x 1/7) = 1·1431

    where Sep 30 future rate + (difference march 1 spot and Sep 30 future rate ) *1/7 (i assume because august (where it is closed under this contract)/(march+april+may+june+july+aug+sep, when it is end by terms)

    Or using futures: 1·1422 + ((1·1449 – 1·1422) x 1/3)) = 1·1431

    where Sep 30 future rate + (difference june future rate and Sep 30 future rate ) *1/3 (i assume because august (where it is closed under this contract)/(july+aug+sep, when it is end by terms)

    Why in solving Boullain CO the solution of Gogarth Co is not used, now if i use the logic of Boullain CO to Gogarth Co i will have :

    Predicted futures rate = 0·2378 + ([0·2378 – 0·2358] x 1/4) = 0·2383

    where Sep future price + (difference sep and june) *1/4 (i assume because august (where it is closed under this contract)/(june+july+aug+sep, when it is end by terms)

    i dont understand why in these two problems different solving is used, would appreciate you help

    with best regards,
    Aidana

    December 5, 2021 at 1:41 pm #642599
    alialsawad1212
    Member
    • Topics: 0
    • Replies: 4
    • ☆

    Hi , did you get any reply on this?

    December 5, 2021 at 1:44 pm #642600
    alialsawad1212
    Member
    • Topics: 0
    • Replies: 4
    • ☆

    I believe that there is a mistake and they should use September rate 0.2378 related to September instead of 0.2366 which is June’s rate, as the payment would occur in August hence there will be one month unexpired.

    The unexpired basis should be calculated as (0.2378- 0.2358)*1/5

    Can the tutor confirm please?

    December 5, 2021 at 3:42 pm #642617
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54708
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    There is no mistake.

    The futures price at the end of August can either be calculated by average between the June and September futures prices (which is the first of the workings that Aidosha has shown.

    Alternative, and strictly more correctly, it can be calculated in the way Aidosh has shown the second of her workings) which is the spot rate of 0.2358 + the expired basis of 4/5(0.2378 – 0.2358).
    (Which is of course the same as the September futures price of 0.2378 – the unexpired basis of (0.2378 – 0.2358) x 1/5 )

    All of them gives the same result of 0.2374

    The examiner always accepts any of the approaches, and the answer will be the same whichever approach is used.

    August 30, 2023 at 4:55 am #690929
    sontuan97
    Participant
    • Topics: 0
    • Replies: 3
    • ☆

    Hi,

    August 30, 2023 at 4:59 am #690930
    sontuan97
    Participant
    • Topics: 0
    • Replies: 3
    • ☆

    Sir, in solving Boullain CO case. whether i can assume the spot rate at 30 Aug equal six months forward rate: 0.8729 to forecast future price?. The result will be different

    August 30, 2023 at 8:58 am #690954
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54708
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    No you cannot assume that. There is no reason at all why the spot rate in six months time should be equal to the current six month forward rate.

    As I explain in my free lectures, the forward rate is determined by relative interest rates whereas the spot rate is influenced by many factors.

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