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(4a.13) Unemployment numbers actually recorded in a town for the second quarter of the year 2000 were 4,700. The underlying trend at this point was 4,300 people and the seasonal factor is 0.92. Using the multiplicative model for seasonal adjustment, what is the seasonally-adjusted figure (in whole numbers) for the quarter?
Answer 5109.What is meant by seasonally adjusted sales? Actual sales with seasonal variation included or excluded? Please help
Seasonally adjusted is different from forecasting. It is taking the actual figures and ‘removing’ the seasonality.
When countries publish (for example) unemployment numbers each quarter it is very misleading just to say that the numbers this quarter are lower than last quarter and therefore it is a good sign, when we know that numbers in the second quarter are always lower than average.
In this question the actual numbers are 4,700. However we know that in quarter 2 the numbers should be only 92% of the average because of seasonality and so had there not been seasonality the numbers would have been 4,700 / 92% = 5,109. (Which in this case means that things are even worse than they look at first.)
A=SVxT so we divide Actual by Seasonal Variation which will give us trend. So this seasonally adjusted figure is a trend?
And tutor, if we divide 4300/0.92 = 4674.
Does these 4674 show any meaningful information? If it does so please share.Thanks!
Dividing 4,300 by 0.92 means nothing and is irrelevant.
5,109 is not the trend. It is what the actual unemployment would have been if there was no seasonality.
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