F7 Provision

hello Mike hope all is well i have a quick question. The question is pasted below: "Skeptic has two potential liabilities to assess. The first is an outstanding court case concerning a customer claiming damages for losses due to faulty components supplied by Skeptic estimated outcome of this liability is: Court case Product warranty claims: 10% chance of no damages awarded 65% chance of damages of $4 million 25% chance of damages of $6 million Advise, and quantify where possible, how the above should be treated in Skeptic’s financial statements for the year ended 31 March 2014" The solution proposed by ACCA for this is: "For the court case the most probable single likely outcome is normally considered to be the best estimate of the liability, i.e.$4 million. This is particularly the case as the possible outcomes are either side of this amount. The $4 million will be an expense for the year ended 31 March 2014 and recognized as a provision" however i have done this differently. Like i have specified that Skeptic should recognize this as contingent liability where the estimated outcome of this liability is 10% and 25% and where it is 65%, it should make a provision of (0.65*4000,000) = 2600,000. is my method acceptable? can you explain why its 4m as provision in the solution by acca and not 2.6m? the reason i did multiply 65% to 4m is because thats how it was done in emily wolf text book thanks