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Expected Values

Ppookie12y ago
Information: 1)the company hires all their Plant & machinery (P&M) 2)The company will enter into an advance hire agreement contract at one of three levels- high, medium or low which correspond to the requirements of a high medium or low level of orders obtained 3)The level of orders obtained would not be known when the advance hire agreement contract is entered into. A set of probabilities have been estimated by management as to the likelihood of the orders being at a high, medium or low level. 4) Where the advance hire agreement contract is lower than that req'd for the level of orders actually obtained, a premium rate must be paid to obtain the additional P&M req'd 5) No refund is available where the advance hire contract is in excess of that req'd to satisfy the orders actually obtained Level of Orders Turnover Probability Plant and Machinery hire cost Advance Hire Conversion Premium $'000 $'000 $'000 High 15,000 0.25 2,300 Medium 8,500 0.45 1,500 Low 4,000 0.30 1,000 Low to Medium 850 Medium to Low 1,300 Low to High 2,150 Variable Cost (as a % of turnover) 70% Required: Prepare a summary which shows the forecast net margin earned by the company for each possible outcome I need help with this question. Im not sure what approach to take, especially about the "low to medium" etc cost. Can u help me? If the answer is too much to type here, you can scan the answer and sent it to my email at [email protected]
John MoffatJohn MoffatTutor12y ago#1
There are 3 levels of agreement, and for each of them 3 possible outcomes. So 9 outcomes in total. I will start you off :-) Suppose agreement is low, and level of orders is low. Hire cost is 1,000. Revenue is 4,000. Variable costs are 2,800. So net margin is 200 Suppose agreement is low, and level of orders is medium. Hire cost is 1,000. Revenue is 8500. Variable costs are 5950 (70% x 8500). Cost of converting from low to medium is 850. So net margin is 700 Suppose agreement is low and level of orders is high. Hire cost is 1000. Revenue is 15000. Variable costs are 10500. Cost converting from low to high is 2150. So net margin is 1350 I hope that explains. If you are clear about the above then you should be able to calculate the others without too much difficulty.
Ppookie12y ago#2
Ok i understand better now. Thank you.
John MoffatJohn MoffatTutor12y ago#3
You are welcome :-)
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