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Expected Values

Forums › Ask ACCA Tutor Forums › Ask the Tutor ACCA PM Exams › Expected Values

  • This topic has 3 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 10 years ago by John Moffat.
Viewing 4 posts - 1 through 4 (of 4 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • August 19, 2014 at 5:55 pm #191547
    pookie
    Member
    • Topics: 6
    • Replies: 11
    • ☆

    Information:

    1)the company hires all their Plant & machinery (P&M)
    2)The company will enter into an advance hire agreement contract at one of three levels- high, medium or low which correspond to the requirements of a high medium or low level of orders obtained
    3)The level of orders obtained would not be known when the advance hire agreement contract is entered into. A set of probabilities have been estimated by management as to the likelihood of the orders being at a high, medium or low level.
    4) Where the advance hire agreement contract is lower than that req’d for the level of orders actually obtained, a premium rate must be paid to obtain the additional P&M req’d
    5) No refund is available where the advance hire contract is in excess of that req’d to satisfy the orders actually obtained

    Level of Orders Turnover Probability Plant and Machinery hire cost
    Advance Hire Conversion Premium
    $’000 $’000 $’000
    High 15,000 0.25 2,300
    Medium 8,500 0.45 1,500
    Low 4,000 0.30 1,000

    Low to Medium 850
    Medium to Low 1,300
    Low to High 2,150

    Variable Cost (as a % of turnover) 70%

    Required:
    Prepare a summary which shows the forecast net margin earned by the company for each possible outcome

    I need help with this question. Im not sure what approach to take, especially about the “low to medium” etc cost. Can u help me?

    If the answer is too much to type here, you can scan the answer and sent it to my email at shanicetrotman03@gmail.com

    August 20, 2014 at 6:15 am #191590
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54684
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    There are 3 levels of agreement, and for each of them 3 possible outcomes. So 9 outcomes in total.

    I will start you off 🙂

    Suppose agreement is low, and level of orders is low.

    Hire cost is 1,000. Revenue is 4,000. Variable costs are 2,800. So net margin is 200

    Suppose agreement is low, and level of orders is medium.

    Hire cost is 1,000. Revenue is 8500. Variable costs are 5950 (70% x 8500). Cost of converting from low to medium is 850. So net margin is 700

    Suppose agreement is low and level of orders is high.

    Hire cost is 1000. Revenue is 15000. Variable costs are 10500. Cost converting from low to high is 2150. So net margin is 1350

    I hope that explains. If you are clear about the above then you should be able to calculate the others without too much difficulty.

    August 20, 2014 at 2:16 pm #191660
    pookie
    Member
    • Topics: 6
    • Replies: 11
    • ☆

    Ok i understand better now. Thank you.

    August 20, 2014 at 2:21 pm #191661
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54684
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    You are welcome 🙂

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    Posts
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