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Expected Value Question.

Forums › Ask ACCA Tutor Forums › Ask the Tutor ACCA PM Exams › Expected Value Question.

  • This topic has 4 replies, 2 voices, and was last updated 4 years ago by John Moffat.
Viewing 5 posts - 1 through 5 (of 5 total)
  • Author
    Posts
  • April 23, 2021 at 2:32 pm #618613
    7fsa
    Participant
    • Topics: 58
    • Replies: 41
    • ☆☆

    Dear John,

    How are you ?
    I hope you are doing well,
    Could you help me regarding the following question please,
    Q: Carson products sell sweatshirts and is preparing for a World Cup Soccer match. The cost per sweatshirt varies with the quantity purchased as follows.
    Quantity Unit Cost
    ———– ———–
    4000 $14
    5000 $13.50
    6000 $13
    7000 $12.50
    Carson must purchase the sweatshirts one month before the game and has analyzed the market and estimated sales levels as follows
    Unit Sales 4000 5000 6000 7000
    Probability %15 %20 %35 %30
    The estimated selling price is $25 for sales made before and during game day. Any sweatshirts remaining after game day can be sold at wholesale to a local discount store for $110.
    The expected profit if Carson purchased 6000 shirts is
    A. $64,500
    B. $66,000
    C. $69,000
    D. $72,000
    My answer is as follow first of all I have calculated
    the total expected unit sales as follow,
    =4000 unit * 15% + 5000 unit * 20% + 6000 units * 35% + 7000 units * 30%
    = 5800 Units.
    Sales at normal price 5800 units * $25 $145,000
    Sales at discounted price 200 Units * $10 2000
    Cost of sales 6000 units * $13 (78,000)
    ————–
    The total expected profit $69,000
    But the correct answer is as follow
    The total expected profit $ 64,500 According to the textbook.
    Could you tell me what is wrong in my answer?

    April 23, 2021 at 2:38 pm #618616
    7fsa
    Participant
    • Topics: 58
    • Replies: 41
    • ☆☆

    Can be sold at wholesale to a local discount store for $10 Not $110 Iam sorry

    April 24, 2021 at 7:17 am #618653
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54655
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    You must always calculate the profit that would result from each of the four levels of demand first, and then calculate the expected profit. You cannot just calculate the expected demand and then calculate the profit because when the demand is less than 6,000 shirts then some are sold at a loss, whereas if demand is more than 6,000 then they can only sell 6,000.

    Have you watched my free lectures, because I explain this in my lectures?

    April 24, 2021 at 10:48 am #618701
    7fsa
    Participant
    • Topics: 58
    • Replies: 41
    • ☆☆

    Thank you for your nice explanation.

    April 24, 2021 at 3:49 pm #618729
    John Moffat
    Keymaster
    • Topics: 57
    • Replies: 54655
    • ☆☆☆☆☆

    You are welcome 🙂

  • Author
    Posts
Viewing 5 posts - 1 through 5 (of 5 total)
  • The topic ‘Expected Value Question.’ is closed to new replies.

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