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2012-09-19 03:54 GMT
BOJ eases more than expected
The BOJ left the overnight call rate range unchanged between 0.0% and 0.1%. Amid much anticipated expectations of the BoJ following the Fed and ECB with further easing, the bank decided to increase the APP program by 10 trillion yen. The increase in the size corresponds to additional increases of treasury disccount bills by 5trillion yen and purchases in JGBs by another 5 trillion. BOJ keeps monthly JGB purchases at 1.8 trillion yen. As John Noonan, Head of IFR Markets, notes: “BOJ has eased a bit more than most were expecting. Market likes it and USD/JPY testing 79.00 level from 78.70 before announcment.”
Lack of macro economic EUR related data for the London session ahead will be the news, with only ECB Governing Council 2 day Meeting starting today, while in the sovereign debt auctions front Germany will sell up to € 5B in 2 year federal notes, and Portugal trying to sell up to € 1.75 in short term T-bills at 09:30 GMT. Portugal 10 year bonds reached past week record 1 ½ year-lows around 8% coming from as high as 17% from Feb 2012, last at 8.72%, while Germany is dealing with 4-month highs touched on Monday at 1.74%, last at 1.65%.
FOREX CALENDAR
2012-09-19 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Bank of England Minutes
2012-09-19 09:00 GMT | Switzerland. ZEW Survey – Expectations (Sep)
2012-09-19 14:00 GMT | United States. Existing Home Sales Change (Aug)
2012-09-19 22:45 GMT | New Zealand. Gross Domestic Product (YoY) (Q2)
FOREX NEWS
2012-09-19 04:48 GMT | GBP/JPY, blue sky until 130.00?
2012-09-19 04:14 GMT | EUR/USD spikes after BoJ
2012-09-19 04:03 GMT | JPY weakens across the board post-BoJ
2012-09-19 02:43 GMT | AUD/JPY peels back below 82.00
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
EURUSD penetrated below the suggested support level at 1.3085 yesterday but failed to go much lower and reach any of our targets. Medium term bias remains positive and today we expect further appreciation if it manage to overcome next resistance level at 1.3116 (R1). Strengthening above it might open way towards to next targets at 1.3172 (R2) and 1.3227 (R3). Current retracement formation might face next support levels at 1.2995 (S1), 1.2941 and 1.2888 (S3) in potential. ZEW Survey – Expectations from Switzerland is the next macroeconomic data release in focus at 09:00 GMT.
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
The GBPUSD trades in a sideways channel between our next support level at 1.6218 (S1) and resistance at 1.6273 (R1). A break in either direction might determine the trading bias for the medium term perspective. Bank of England Minutes at 08:30 GMT might provide sufficient impulse for the market move. Penetration above the 1.6273 (R1) would suggest next targets at 1.6308 (R2) and 1.6348 (R3) in potential. On the other side, loss of 1.6218 (S1) would enable targets at 1.6181 (S2) and 1.6144 (S3). We suggest waiting for a clear directional signal prior taking any positions
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
After the BoJ Interest Rate Decision stays unchanged at 0.1%, USDJPY gained momentum and reached our target at 79.17 today. Technically, current bullish market sentiment will remain in place while USDJPY trades above the support level at 79.93 (S1). Our upwards targets locates at 79.42 (R1), 79.63 (R2) and 79.84 (R3) in potential. Conversely, decline below the suggested support level at 79.93 (S1) might initiate protective orders execution and expose next targets at 78.72 (S2) and 78.51 (S3).
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (https://www.fxcc.com/)
2012-09-20 02:38 GMT
HSBC Manufacturing PMI still in contraction at 47.8
The HSBC Flash China Manufacturing PMI registered a 2-month high of 47.8 in September from 47.6 in August, Markit Economics reported Thursday. This reading signals that the manufacturing sector in China remains in contraction (above 50.0 indicates industry expansion, below indicates contraction).
For the London session ahead the Spanish sovereign 10 year bond auction will take center stage, as yields have been below 6% for last few days, and previous auction reached a 6.65% final yield. France will also sell up to € 10B in different maturities starting at 08:50 GMT. In the macro data EUR related front Germany will release its PPI figures at 06:00 GMT, followed by French PMIs at 06:58 GMT, German PMIs at 07:28 GMT, Netherlands consumer confidence and unemployment 2 minutes later, EU PMIs at 07:58 GMT, and Italian industrial orders 2 minutes later.
FOREX CALENDAR
2012-09-20 07:28 GMT | Germany. Markit Manufacturing PMI (Sep) Preliminar
2012-09-20 08:30 GMT | United Kingdom. Retail Sales (YoY) (Aug)
2012-09-20 12:30 GMT | United States. Initial Jobless Claims (Sep 15)
2012-09-20 14:00 GMT | United States. Philadelphia Fed Manufacturing Survey (Sep)
FOREX NEWS
2012-09-20 04:35 GMT | EUR/JPY moves downhill, regional bourses deep in red
2012-09-20 04:31 GMT | EUR/USD holding above 1.30
2012-09-20 03:22 GMT | AUD/JPY pressured, Asian stocks weigh
2012-09-20 00:37 GMT | USD/JPY: expect slide to continue below 78.20 – V.Bednarik
FOREX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS:
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Today we expect increase of volatility due to the many macroeconomic data releases. The Germany market Manufacturing PMI release at 07:28 GMT is the next news in focus for Eurozone. Local high, formed yesterday at 1.3085 (R1) is acts now as next immediate resistance level today. Brake here is required to enable stronger market action, targeting 1.3131 (R2) and 1.3173 (R3). At the moment instrument is moving towards to our next support level at 1.2298 (S1). If it breaks below it, we expect further downgrade towards to next targets at 1.2945 (S2) and 1.2900 (S3).
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
Decline into the negative territory yesterday initiated selling pressure and GBPUSD dropped below the suggested support level at 1.6218. Technically, pair is set for new targets achievement. On the upside, next resistance locates above the today’s high at 1.6239 (R1). Break here would suggest next target at 1.6274 (R2) and any further rise would then be limited to 1.6311 (R3). However, successful retest of our next support level at 1.6181 (S1) would suggest a pullback expansion towards to targets at 1.6144 (S2) and 1.6109 (S3). In focus UK Retail Sales for August at 08:30.
MARKET ANALYSIS – Intraday Analysis
The pair is under the process of recovering. Our bearish medium term outlook will remain in place while USDJPY trades below the resistance at 78.46 (R1). Break here might change market structure and determine medium term uptrend development. In such scenario we would suggest next targets at 78.73 (R2) and 79.01 (R3). Though, today we expect that the pair continues to extend its bearish pressure and face next support level at 77.88 (S1). Break here is required to extend easing towards to 77.62 (S2) and 77.37 (S3) in perspective.
Source: FX Central Clearing Ltd, (https://www.fxcc.com/)
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