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- November 7, 2011 at 2:21 pm #50368
I have some inquires regarding ‘ Forecasting’of chapter 26.
1) on page 92, ‘the trend adjusted for seasonal variations’ says: ‘ we could say that the trend has moved from 2702 to 2451 in 7 jumps , this is (2702-2451)/7=36/season.
I want to say that figure 2702 can not be found from the above diagram, just 2720 can be found. Meanwhiel, (2720-2451)/7=38/season, not 36.2) on page 93, ‘Exponential smoothing’, the prediction for Q3/Yr3
75%*2832+25%*2451=2736, the calculation based on last time’s actual resluts and last time’s predicted results.But for the prediction for Q4/Yr 3,
75%*1920+25%*2737=2,124
according to the explanation of ‘exponential smoothing’, the predicted results should be based on the last last time’s actual resluts and last time’s predicted results.I guess the prediction for Q4/Yr 3, should be:
75%*2160+25%*2737=2304.Could anyone can help to have a look at these inquiries?
November 7, 2011 at 5:21 pm #894121) on page 92, ‘the trend adjusted for seasonal variations’ says: ‘ we could say that the trend has moved from 2702 to 2451 in 7 jumps , this is (2702-2451)/7=36/season.
I want to say that figure 2702 can not be found from the above diagram, just 2720 can be found. Meanwhiel, (2720-2451)/7=38/season, not 36.Thank you. You are correct. It should have been 2720 and 38 per season
2) on page 93, ‘Exponential smoothing’, the prediction for Q3/Yr3
75%*2832+25%*2451=2736, the calculation based on last time’s actual resluts and last time’s predicted results.But for the prediction for Q4/Yr 3,
75%*1920+25%*2737=2,124
according to the explanation of ‘exponential smoothing’, the predicted results should be based on the last last time’s actual resluts and last time’s predicted results.I guess the prediction for Q4/Yr 3, should be:
75%*2160+25%*2737=2304.
Again, you are correctThank you for spotting these errors (you are the first person to comment in over a year!). We will change it as soon as we can
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