adjusting or non-adjusting?

Same principle as here ... https://opentuition.com/topic/restructuring-provision-yes-no DE FACTO there was no obligation at the reporting date. The company is under no obligation to pay a dividend until it is declared.

Measurement for ANY provision under IAS 37 is "the best estimate of the expenditure required to settle the present obligation at the end of the reporting period". So IF the obligation is DE FACTO settled before the financial statements are finalised - that settlement is an adjusting event and the provision can be adjusted (if materially different to the draft accounts). But if it's not settled - it can only remain an estimate.