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August 17, 2022 at 7:16 am
Hope all is well.
Sir in 6th part you’ve taken the value 5 instead of 4.59.
please explain sir.
John Moffat says
August 17, 2022 at 7:58 am
Because it is our choice whether to shut or to continue with cheap refurbishment. Shutting gives us a bigger return,
November 7, 2020 at 6:05 am
Well explained but as for remote exams with no rough sheet allowed, will it be possible to solve such questions?
November 7, 2020 at 9:06 am
You cannot be asked to draw a tree, but you are expected to understand it and be able to do relevant calculations on it.
(Although there is no rough paper, there is a scratch pad on the computer)
September 28, 2020 at 1:16 pm
Thank you Mr. Moffat, your lecture is quite helpful as you explained a complex concept with simplicity yet informative
September 28, 2020 at 2:55 pm
Thank you for your comment 🙂
June 10, 2020 at 8:09 pm
i have struggled to find the value of perfect information in example two in the case of the decision three; could you help please.
i would like thank u in advance.
your are the best accounting lecturer i have ever saw.
June 11, 2020 at 10:51 am
But example 2 does not ask for the value of perfect information 🙂
June 12, 2020 at 8:51 pm
I know, but i wonder if we could find out the value of perfect information in the case of the decision three.
June 4, 2020 at 4:15 am
This is the best lecture I have ever got on decision tree. Thanks for the clear and concise explanation.
June 4, 2020 at 9:13 am
May 13, 2020 at 11:28 am
Thank you very much for this presentation. It has indeed cleared alot of my confusion regarding the decision tree theory.
May 13, 2020 at 3:42 pm
January 18, 2020 at 8:40 am
Really good lecture John, thank you for explaining so clearly.
I believe we may have missed a step at point B, we should have deducted 2m from 4.59 = 2.59. So the decision would have been 5m & 2.59 m return. It doesn’t impact the final decision in this example as 5m is still a better option.
December 20, 2019 at 4:56 am
December 20, 2019 at 7:10 am
October 20, 2019 at 4:25 am
What happens to the 200K for market research?
October 20, 2019 at 6:24 am
Please ignore, sorry
October 20, 2019 at 9:13 am
No problem 🙂
July 25, 2019 at 5:45 am
Who ever thought this technique is worth learning and should be added to the Syllabus should be fired from their job.
imagine advising your boss to take particular decision based on this childish drawings he’ll fire you on the spot.
anyhow thank you mr john for making it simple and understandable
July 25, 2019 at 10:01 am
But most decisions in practice have uncertain outcomes and expected values is one approach to dealing with the uncertainty that might be worth considering.
(The tree itself is not a requirement, but does help sort out the problem when there are several decisions to be made depending on the outcomes. The problem is not the tree but whether or not expected values are a sensible way of dealing with the uncertainty.)
Thanks for the final comment 🙂
November 1, 2018 at 4:05 pm
Excellent presentation. Thanks
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