Dear sir,
By the definition given in the notes the definition of futures say that it is "a binding contract to buy/sell contract currency at a fixed rate and at a fixed date" but the assumption given for estimating futures prices states that the price of the futures will be same as the spot rate at the end of its life
Sir I had initially thought that the Price on the date of purchase of the futures contract would be the exercise price at the end of its life because of the definition, now I have understood that the price we purchase futures at is the market price and not the exercise price and the Market value of the future is assumed to be equal to the spot rate on the last day (on maturity)
So does that mean the Market value of the futures on the last day is also the exercise price?
Also, I still do not understand why in the definition of futures it is stated that Currency futures contract is a contract to buy/sell at a "Fixed price" because isn't the price variable as its based on the spot rate on maturity, so can you pls clarify on what this fixed price is?
J
John MoffatTutor·
If you want to convert currency on a specific date then you convert it at whatever the sport rate is on that date (and that is the exercise price). However if the conversion is going to take place on a future date then obviously by that date in the future the spot rate may have changed and therefore the amount you will pay or receive on conversion will change - so there is risk.
To avoid that risk you can use futures which effectively fix the exchange rate today that will apply on the future date.
So, for example, the futures rate today that will apply to converting on (say) 30 September might be 1.20. If you enter the futures contract then the transaction on 30 September will be converted at 1.20 whatever the spot rate happens to be on 30 September.
However, if you wait a week then the futures rate offered for conversion on 30 September will likely be different. The futures rate will change from day to day.
If you waited until 30 September to enter into the futures contract then you will be getting a fixed rate for converting on 30 September. That fixed rate on 30 September must be the same as the spot rate on 30 September otherwise it would be ridiculous - nobody is ever going to give you a rate on 30 September for conversion on the 30 September that is different from the spot rate on 30 September :-)
F
Farhaan·
Thank you sir, I have understood now.
J
John MoffatTutor·
Great :-)
S
Sorty·
Hi, why are we using the average spot rates when calculating basis risk instead 1,4821 and 1,4791 on 20 June and 12 September, respectively?
Thanks
A
Anna·
Great lecture. Thanks a lot, John
J
John MoffatTutor·
Thank you for your comment :-)
A
Akash·
Hi John, Thanks for this amazing lecture. Just a quick question, at time stamp 23:36, for calculating the number of days, it should be 10 days in June + 31 in July + 31 in Aug and 30 days in Sep, should it not?
A
Akash·
Please ignore. I actually paused the lecture to think it through. You've corrected in the next two mins. Thank you :)
A
adnan·
hey, sir thank you for this amazing lecture.
Sir, what will be the examiner's response be if in example 11, we sell 6 contracts instead of 5 contracts?
J
John MoffatTutor·
You will get the marks whichever way you round it :-)
G
Gianmarco·
Hi, I'm not sure why the basis risk is only 0.0067 at August 31 st in example 10. Don't you have 3 periods for the futures (July 30, August 31, September 30)? If the spread starts at 0.02 at July 1, the spread will reduce by 0.0067, 0.0067 *2, and 0.0067 * 3 at July 30, August 31, and September 30 respectively. Which means that at August 31, the spread (basis risk) would be "reducing" the spot rate by 0.02/3*2 or 0.0134 to close the gap with the futures rate?
N
no1lover·
Remember the as we are assuming the difference between the spot and the futures falls linearly to zero the keeps reducing by .0067. Therefore by 31st Jul the Remaining Basis will be 0.0133 and by the 31 Aug it would be 0.0067. Hence why now you can use the remaining basis of 0.0067 to calculate the futures price.
K
keerthi·
Hello John.
Why is it that on the date of the transaction we divide by the lower rate, i.e., 1.4791 to convert to spot, but then while calculating the profit, we divide by 1.4812?
J
John MoffatTutor·
To pay the supplier we are buying $'s and so convert at 1.4791.
We are receiving a $ gain on the futures therefore we need to sell $'s and so convert at 1.4812.
(What they could do is use the $ gain on the futures to part pay the $500,000 and so only the net $ amount would need to be converted at 1.4791). Either is acceptable in the exam.
R
Richard·
Hi John, as I was watching example 11 , this was my thought too.
Presumably in real life this is the better option as you save (by avoidance) twice on the spread ie the $1281.25 to GBP for the hedge, and the reduction of GBP required as now we need (500000-1281.25) $498,718.75?
thanks
J
Jacinth·
that was amazing, just one doubt , at the end while we convert the profit to pounds should we use the buy rate ie the smaller rate or sell ie the higher rate ? , as in this case we need to pay dollars hence buy dollars and sell pounds so shouldn't we be using the buy rate for that conversion?
J
John MoffatTutor·
The profit is calculated in dollars and so to convert it to pounds we need to sell dollars and buy pounds.
K
kasobi·
I'm so much enjoying the lecture. Thanks John
J
John MoffatTutor·
Thank you for your comment :-)
J
Joseph·
What a great lecture! Thanks John
J
John MoffatTutor·
Thank you for your comment :-)
M
Mr. Aboukar·
Thanks to you, AFM finally makes sense to me.
J
John MoffatTutor·
Great :-)
S
Sarvin·
Thank you, Sir.
You deserve all the happiness in this world
J
John MoffatTutor·
Thank you for your comment :-)
J
julianleong·
Hi John,
I used example 11 to practise converting at the lock-in rate (1.4843) and realized that the net result differed from the question answer. One reason would be the contract number which is not exact. After accounting for this, it still does not match and I realized that due to the differences in the spread between the spot rate (buy and sell) on the futures purchase (75 ticks) and sell (21 ticks) dates, the net result will not match exactly.
J
John MoffatTutor·
That is true, but I do explain this in the lectures.
D
druscilla·
Hello Sir,
Since we’re taking the days from 20th June to 31st September, shouldn’t the days be 10 for June, 31 for July, 31 for August, and 30 for September? Which would be 10+31+31+30=102 days? Kindly clarify.
D
druscilla·
Realized that this error was clarified in the video. Thank you.
J
John MoffatTutor·
No problem :-)
M
mybookworm·
Thanks Sir for your clear and inspiring lecture
I have a question, please help to clarify, why in example 11 we round down the contracts from 5.39 to 5 but not round up to 6, will it make us more risk when we do not cover all the amount of the original transaction in the future deal?
J
John MoffatTutor·
There will be some risk whichever way you round - either due to the exchange rate changing or to the futures price changing.
R
rhythm·
Hi John,
Could you please explain the bank 'buys low sells high rule'? I have watched your previous lectures but I am still getting confused.
Like in example 11,
We OWE $500,000 and so we will sell pounds in order to buy $ (and the base currency is $). So according to this when we buy $, the bank will sell $ at a higher price (so that the bank is benefited from the transaction).
But in this example when you converted the $500,000 on 12th September you used the lower rate i.e 1.4791 rather than 1.4812.
J
John MoffatTutor·
I do not use that 'rule'!! It is safer to use logic in Paper AFM rather than just learn 'rules'.
You use whatever rate is the worst one for the company. In example 11, we are buying $'s. The exchange rate is for the $ quoted against the Pound (so it is the number of $'s that 1 Pound will buy). 1.4791 means that the company pays more Pounds (500,000/1.4791) than if we used 1.4812 (which would mean paying 500,000/1.4812 Pounds).
R
rhythm·
Fair enough!
Thanks, John
M
mkoshtayev·
Hi John. thank you for your lectures.
i have question regarding the calculation of basis on transaction day.
It is from the question #2 from AFM December 2018.
the approach of the examiner in my opinion conflicts with your approach
shortly the period is 7 months:
transaction happens on the end of 6th month:
and the examiner does the following: Futures price = Lock in rate + 6/7 * basis. but by your logic we should use 1/7 since there is only 1 month left. Could you please clarify that part for me?
J
John MoffatTutor·
No. The exam answer has calculated the lock-in rate as being the current spot + 6/7 of the basis.
Alternative you can calculate it as the current futures price less 1/7 of the basis.
Both ways always give the same result. (As to whether to add or subtract in both cases, just remember that the lock-in rate must always be somewhere between the current spot and the current futures price :-) )
M
mkoshtayev·
Now I got it. Thank you very much!
M
my life·
Thank you.
A
Alessandro·
Quick question about the spot rates. In this case we owe a supplier $500k so we are going to sell £ to buy $.
On the 20.06 I considered the relevant rate to be 1.4821 and on the 12,09 the relevant rate would be 1.4791.
When calculating the future value I used the above mentioned rates and I did not calculate the average.
20-Jun 12-Sep 30-Sep
spot 1.4821 1.4791 x
future 1.4840 1.4794 x
basis 0.0019 0.0003 0
Can it be considered correct in an exam scenario or I am going to lose marks?
Thanks, all the lecture was really helpful.
J
John MoffatTutor·
That would be fine in the exam :-)
M
Mahrukh·
Hello John, the point you mentioned at 27:19 ''that if the futures rate is lower than the spot today, then it will be lower than spot in future as well'' is it just an assumption or it's practically this way?
You're always a great help, Many thanks :)
J
John MoffatTutor·
It is an assumption, but is something that would almost always be the case in real life as well.
M
Mahrukh·
Thank you, one more question that if the spot rate at the transaction date is not given, how will we calculate closing futures price. Can we use forward rate quoted at the transaction date as expected spot?
Also many times examiner calculates the basis as the difference between two futures prices quoted, rather than difference between current spot and futures rate (Dec 2018 Q2), why is that so and in what case this approach will be required in exam?
Thank you for your support :)
J
John MoffatTutor·
When we do not know the spot rate at the date of the transaction we use the lock-in rate instead. There is more than one way of arriving at the lock-in rate, but the method I explain in the lecture is strictly the correct way.
M
Mahrukh·
Understood, thankyou :)
J
John MoffatTutor·
You are welcome :-)
P
prateesh·
Hello sir, in the final step on 12th Sept, while converting 500,000$ to pounds we used the rate at 1.4791. And in the next step we are using 1.4812 to convert the profits earned from dollars to pounds.
My question is, should we not use the same rate (which is 1.4791) to convert the profits into pounds. Please clarify me.
J
John MoffatTutor·
For the $500,000 we are buying $'s and therefore use 1.4791.
For the profit on the futures, we will be selling $'s and therefore use 1.4812.
(However, you could in fact use the $ profit to make part of the $ payment, and that would be effectively the same as converting the profit at 1.4791)
P
prateesh·
Thank you so much for the clarification sir.
C
Cynthia·
Hello Sir, is there a reason why august was missed out in arriving at the basis period. I am a bit confused, please help clarify.
C
Cynthia·
Oh seen.....
J
John MoffatTutor·
I am pleased you sorted it out :-)
C
chimmm·
Just like in example 9 we were selling the first currency which is the us dollar so we used the higher rate both at the time of converting at spot rate which was 1.5190 and also on converting the gain on futures we used this higher rate.
C
chimmm·
Sir,t thanks for the lectures . I wanted to ask that in example 11 you have used the higher spot rate on Sept 12 to convert the gain on futures whereas in this example we we're actually buying usd to pay the supplier and as the dollar is the first currency and we're buying it so shouldn't we take the lower rate 1.4791 to convert the gain on futures???. since this is also the rate at which converted the transaction at spot rate $500000÷ 1.4791
S
shahtanya·
Hi John ,
In the last bit of example 11, while converting the gain to pounds why have we used the selling rate of 1.4812 . We did use 1.4791 as the rate for converting $500000 on 12th sep so shouldn't the same rate be used for the gain calculation ?
J
John MoffatTutor·
When converting the $500,000 we are buying dollars. When converting the gain we are selling dollars (because the gain is calculated in dollars).
(Out of interest, you could use some of the dollar gain to make part of the dollar payment, which then would effectively convert it at 1.4812)
K
kokilauma·
Hello, Sir.
Since we're taking the days from 20th June to 31st September, shouldn't the days be 10 for June, 31 for July, 31 for August and 30 for September? Which would be 10+31+31+30 that is 102 days? Do correct me if i'm missing something.
Thanks a tonne.
K
kokilauma·
Oh Sorry, my doubt just got cleared.
Z
Zhixiang·
Hi John,
For example 11 (say in the real exam scenario), will I score any extra marks if I do the following format?
- Sell Pound Futures
- Price 1.4840 - End September 2004
- Tick value $6.25
- No of contract: 5 [workings below ($500,000 / 1.4840) / GBP 62500]
In case of indicating "Sell Pound Future" is to remind myself for Sell high 1.4840, and buy back low 1.4799 for profit, make sure my tireness doesn't cause me to do the opposite (Loss) for a Buy Pound scenario
Thanks
J
John MoffatTutor·
Thats fine
L
leny·
Hi Sir ,
Can basis risk be negative ?
Here in the above example , spot price is greater than future price and hence basis is positive .
In few exam questions future price is higher than spot price , so that means basis will be negative . Is this logic applicable to all questions regardless or receipt or payment ?
J
John MoffatTutor·
Yes - although I don't really like to think of it as being negative even though arithmetically I suppose it is. But more importantly the futures price can be higher or lower than the spot rate and therefore it will always be higher or lower as the difference approaches towards zero.
T
tolahenryoni·
Good day. Thanks for the lecture. On the e.g. 11. I do not understand why you are deducting the 1.4799 from 1.4840 to calculate the gain on the futures. In the last 2 previous examples we deducted the sell was the closing future price and the buy the future price now.
J
John MoffatTutor·
In example 9, the underlying transaction is selling $'s because they are receiving $'s. In example 11 the underlying transaction is buying $'s because they are paying $'s.
We buy or sell futures at the current price depending on whether the underlying transaction involves buying or selling the currency. I do explain this, and also read again note 1 below example 9 in the lecture notes.
E
Elena·
Hello. Please clearify the note 1 to the example 9: why have we to buy futures when we buy currency? I guess we act on the "contraversial" and in the following examples there are written "buy" futures when we sell the currency and "sell" wnen we buy currency.
And one more question: there is no question 13 in the answers.
(Thank you, the lectures and notes are very helpfull)
J
John MoffatTutor·
We buy futures when the transaction involves buying the currency in which the futures are quoted (the currency in which the contract size is quoted). We sell futures when the transaction involves selling the currency in which the futures are quoted.
This is what happens in all of the examples.
There is no printed answer to example 13, but I explain the free lectures.
E
Elena·
It will be clear to give the last words in the note to the ex.9:
"The contract currency is the currency in which the FUTURS contract is quoted".
I really spend several days to get what was meant there.
J
John MoffatTutor·
I am not changing the notes, because I make this clear in the lecture (and the notes should not be used on their own - it is in the lectures that I explain and expand on the notes).
L
Lucie13Supporter·
Dear John
I do find it enjoyable watching your lectures:) thank you for doing what you have been doing. It is much appreciated.
J
John MoffatTutor·
Thank you for your comment :-)
J
John MoffatTutor·
You are welcome :-)
A
Ashlan·
Hi Mr Moffat, I may be wrong but from 1 July to 31 August should actually be 2 months? Therefore 0.0200 x 2/3 (rather than 1/3). Then from 31 Aug to 30 Sep will be 1/3. You made the point very clearly, I just want to make sure that this logic is correct. Thanks for the lectures!
J
John MoffatTutor·
1 July to 31 August is indeed 2 months. Therefore the basis will have fallen by 2 months out of 3, and the basis remaining will be for 1 month out of 3 i.e. 1/3 x 0.200.
The answer is correct :-)
A
Ashlan·
Oh I see, that makes sense :) Sorry I was a bit confused, now I see how you did it. Thanks so much!
By the definition given in the notes the definition of futures say that it is "a binding contract to buy/sell contract currency at a fixed rate and at a fixed date" but the assumption given for estimating futures prices states that the price of the futures will be same as the spot rate at the end of its life
Sir I had initially thought that the Price on the date of purchase of the futures contract would be the exercise price at the end of its life because of the definition, now I have understood that the price we purchase futures at is the market price and not the exercise price and the Market value of the future is assumed to be equal to the spot rate on the last day (on maturity)
So does that mean the Market value of the futures on the last day is also the exercise price?
Also, I still do not understand why in the definition of futures it is stated that Currency futures contract is a contract to buy/sell at a "Fixed price" because isn't the price variable as its based on the spot rate on maturity, so can you pls clarify on what this fixed price is?
To avoid that risk you can use futures which effectively fix the exchange rate today that will apply on the future date.
So, for example, the futures rate today that will apply to converting on (say) 30 September might be 1.20. If you enter the futures contract then the transaction on 30 September will be converted at 1.20 whatever the spot rate happens to be on 30 September.
However, if you wait a week then the futures rate offered for conversion on 30 September will likely be different. The futures rate will change from day to day.
If you waited until 30 September to enter into the futures contract then you will be getting a fixed rate for converting on 30 September. That fixed rate on 30 September must be the same as the spot rate on 30 September otherwise it would be ridiculous - nobody is ever going to give you a rate on 30 September for conversion on the 30 September that is different from the spot rate on 30 September :-)
Thanks
Sir, what will be the examiner's response be if in example 11, we sell 6 contracts instead of 5 contracts?
Why is it that on the date of the transaction we divide by the lower rate, i.e., 1.4791 to convert to spot, but then while calculating the profit, we divide by 1.4812?
We are receiving a $ gain on the futures therefore we need to sell $'s and so convert at 1.4812.
(What they could do is use the $ gain on the futures to part pay the $500,000 and so only the net $ amount would need to be converted at 1.4791). Either is acceptable in the exam.
Presumably in real life this is the better option as you save (by avoidance) twice on the spread ie the $1281.25 to GBP for the hedge, and the reduction of GBP required as now we need (500000-1281.25) $498,718.75?
thanks
You deserve all the happiness in this world
I used example 11 to practise converting at the lock-in rate (1.4843) and realized that the net result differed from the question answer. One reason would be the contract number which is not exact. After accounting for this, it still does not match and I realized that due to the differences in the spread between the spot rate (buy and sell) on the futures purchase (75 ticks) and sell (21 ticks) dates, the net result will not match exactly.
Since we’re taking the days from 20th June to 31st September, shouldn’t the days be 10 for June, 31 for July, 31 for August, and 30 for September? Which would be 10+31+31+30=102 days? Kindly clarify.
I have a question, please help to clarify, why in example 11 we round down the contracts from 5.39 to 5 but not round up to 6, will it make us more risk when we do not cover all the amount of the original transaction in the future deal?
Could you please explain the bank 'buys low sells high rule'? I have watched your previous lectures but I am still getting confused.
Like in example 11,
We OWE $500,000 and so we will sell pounds in order to buy $ (and the base currency is $). So according to this when we buy $, the bank will sell $ at a higher price (so that the bank is benefited from the transaction).
But in this example when you converted the $500,000 on 12th September you used the lower rate i.e 1.4791 rather than 1.4812.
You use whatever rate is the worst one for the company. In example 11, we are buying $'s. The exchange rate is for the $ quoted against the Pound (so it is the number of $'s that 1 Pound will buy). 1.4791 means that the company pays more Pounds (500,000/1.4791) than if we used 1.4812 (which would mean paying 500,000/1.4812 Pounds).
Thanks, John
i have question regarding the calculation of basis on transaction day.
It is from the question #2 from AFM December 2018.
the approach of the examiner in my opinion conflicts with your approach
shortly the period is 7 months:
transaction happens on the end of 6th month:
and the examiner does the following: Futures price = Lock in rate + 6/7 * basis. but by your logic we should use 1/7 since there is only 1 month left. Could you please clarify that part for me?
Alternative you can calculate it as the current futures price less 1/7 of the basis.
Both ways always give the same result. (As to whether to add or subtract in both cases, just remember that the lock-in rate must always be somewhere between the current spot and the current futures price :-) )
On the 20.06 I considered the relevant rate to be 1.4821 and on the 12,09 the relevant rate would be 1.4791.
When calculating the future value I used the above mentioned rates and I did not calculate the average.
20-Jun 12-Sep 30-Sep
spot 1.4821 1.4791 x
future 1.4840 1.4794 x
basis 0.0019 0.0003 0
Can it be considered correct in an exam scenario or I am going to lose marks?
Thanks, all the lecture was really helpful.
You're always a great help, Many thanks :)
Also many times examiner calculates the basis as the difference between two futures prices quoted, rather than difference between current spot and futures rate (Dec 2018 Q2), why is that so and in what case this approach will be required in exam?
Thank you for your support :)
My question is, should we not use the same rate (which is 1.4791) to convert the profits into pounds. Please clarify me.
For the profit on the futures, we will be selling $'s and therefore use 1.4812.
(However, you could in fact use the $ profit to make part of the $ payment, and that would be effectively the same as converting the profit at 1.4791)
In the last bit of example 11, while converting the gain to pounds why have we used the selling rate of 1.4812 . We did use 1.4791 as the rate for converting $500000 on 12th sep so shouldn't the same rate be used for the gain calculation ?
(Out of interest, you could use some of the dollar gain to make part of the dollar payment, which then would effectively convert it at 1.4812)
Since we're taking the days from 20th June to 31st September, shouldn't the days be 10 for June, 31 for July, 31 for August and 30 for September? Which would be 10+31+31+30 that is 102 days? Do correct me if i'm missing something.
Thanks a tonne.
For example 11 (say in the real exam scenario), will I score any extra marks if I do the following format?
- Sell Pound Futures
- Price 1.4840 - End September 2004
- Tick value $6.25
- No of contract: 5 [workings below ($500,000 / 1.4840) / GBP 62500]
In case of indicating "Sell Pound Future" is to remind myself for Sell high 1.4840, and buy back low 1.4799 for profit, make sure my tireness doesn't cause me to do the opposite (Loss) for a Buy Pound scenario
Thanks
Can basis risk be negative ?
Here in the above example , spot price is greater than future price and hence basis is positive .
In few exam questions future price is higher than spot price , so that means basis will be negative . Is this logic applicable to all questions regardless or receipt or payment ?
We buy or sell futures at the current price depending on whether the underlying transaction involves buying or selling the currency. I do explain this, and also read again note 1 below example 9 in the lecture notes.
And one more question: there is no question 13 in the answers.
(Thank you, the lectures and notes are very helpfull)
This is what happens in all of the examples.
There is no printed answer to example 13, but I explain the free lectures.
"The contract currency is the currency in which the FUTURS contract is quoted".
I really spend several days to get what was meant there.
I do find it enjoyable watching your lectures:) thank you for doing what you have been doing. It is much appreciated.
The answer is correct :-)