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Hello,
I was given a whole B section question on Time Series/Forecasting and am trying to figure out a question following another question i spotted that was posted in the forum on “centred moving averages”, Please could you have a look and reveal how it is that we can determine a Seasonal component? I;ll copy and paste the question below (the relevant part). Many thanks
The sales for Q1 of 20×4 were correctly forecasted as 1,492,427. (Answer to question before – Sales for 20×3 Q3: 1200196 and Q4: 1475856)
What is the seasonal variation for Q1, assuming a multiplicative model (to two decimal places)?
“Sauce Co manufactures and sells cartons of cooking sauces. The finance director would like to forecast sales, including the impact of seasonal variation.
Data has been gathered and the following centered moving averages have been calculated, using a base period of 4 quarters. The seasonal variations are 0·904 for quarter 3 and 1·079 for quarter 4. The random component is negligible and can therefore be ignored.
YEAR
Quarter 1
‘000 Units
Quarter 2
‘000 Units
Quarter 3
‘000 Units
Quarter 4
‘000 Units
20×2
1,086.75
1,112.5
1,162.5
1,206.25
20×3
1,243.75
1,287.5
1,200,196
1,475,856
20×4
1,492,427
Can I ask where did you get it from?
Have you watched the brilliant lecture on this topic?
Can i just say that it isn’t my role to work out questions for you.
I am here to guide you with your understandingAh yeah i should have been more clear here. This is from the ACCA pre-Dec mock exam (on the ACCA practice platform) I was quite surprised by it because i’ve not covered it from that angle. I have indeed watched the lecture from John carried out in the Management Accounting syllabus. It doesn’t quite touch on this part though from what i remember.
I see. No problem
Random question, but can i ask….would you say that passing the ACCA is more difficult now than say 10 years ago? And if so, do you have a percentage in mind of how much more difficult it is?
Why do i ask? Because man, have i put a LOT of hours in. Probably closing in now on 135 hrs. A lot of it is just practicing the techniques across this VERY broad spectrum that the syllabus covers, and building up exam technique. I’ve not had a great chance to work on capturing the pure knowledge side of it and still need to cover this. It’s crazy for what is required
This is a topic that is examined in earlier papers in MA or AAT
But you can watch the MA lectures.
Time series is Chapter 19 of the Paper MA notes and the lectures and can be found from the main Paper MA page.
Here is a link to the lecture: https://opentuition.com/acca/ma/time-series-analysis-acca-management-accounting-ma/I don’t want to answer your question about the exam because you won’t like my answer.
What I will say is that I agree that this is a big syllabus area.
It is a very difficult exam to do under exam conditions.
But if you have good knowledge which you appear to have, have practiced lots of questions which you have I can tell, you will stand an extremely good chance.
Good luckThanks. Yes i’ve seen this lecture but it might be worth another watch soon.
Exam is on Wednesday. I’ve been through my BPP revision kit i think twice now. I’m about to do my second practice exam probably today. I might have to use tomorrow as a chance to capture some pure knowledge because Monday i’ll need to practice some question techniques, arithmetic again so i’m sharp enough for Wednesday… I might have just as much fun seeing how long i can hold my breath for
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