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Forums › Ask ACCA Tutor Forums › Ask the Tutor ACCA MA – FIA FMA › Normal distribution
The returns from a project are normally distributed with a mean of $200,000 and a standard deviation of $160,000.
If the project loses more than $100,000 the company will be in financial difficulties.
What is the probability of the project losing more than $100,000?
Answer is 3%
z=(200000-100000)/160000
z=0.625
In standard normal distribution table value of 0.62=0.2324
0.5 -0.23=0.27 0r 27%
Can you tell me where I went wrong?
What you have done is calculate the probability of making a return of 100,000.
However the question asks for the probability of losing more than 100,000. I.e. a return of minus 100,000.
So z = (200,000 + 100,000) / 160,000 = 1.875 and not 0.625