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Hello Sir. I have a question related to Time Series Analysis.
For instance if we have been provided with a Time Series Data. And we noticed a Three month pattern in the Time series and calculated a Three Months moving average for Trend and then also Seasonal Variation.
So does this means that the Seasonal Variation that has been computed for 2nd, 3rd and 4th month.
Will repeat for (5th, 6th and 7th) month and then similarly for (8th, 9th and 10th Month).
Just like what has been shown in the Technical Article of ACCAAnd sir in case that’s not the case.
We need to adjust the Seasonal Variation values.
Similar to what you did in your Time Series Analysis video (Though it was Quarterly, we can do the same for monthly as well).Thankyou Sir.
Sir one last thing, within Time Series.
This is an extract from past examination.Western is a local govt organisation responsible for waste collection from domestic household.
And the organisation by using time series analysis has produced the relationship between Tonnes of Waste Collected and time period. T= 2000+25Q.Each Quarter is subject to some seasonal variation with more waste being collected in the middle quarter of each year. The adjustments required to the underlying trend prediction are.
Quarter = 1, 2, 3,4
Tonnes = -200, +250, +150, -100.The question asks us to forcast using the above data.
Sir my question is that, in the above scenario.
The Seasonal Variation do not add up to 0, rather there’s difference of 100.But in the answer, we have simple used the Seasonal Variation provided in the question rather than adjusting the difference of 100.
Can you tell me why is so ?It is because the question specifically states that those are the adjustments to make.
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